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ATP Barcelona Tips: Slow conditions give Coria a chance against Dimitrov

Sean Calvert
20 April 2022

With rain expected in Barcelona on Wednesday, slow conditions should suit Coria

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Round two of the Barcelona Open and the Serbia Open is in-play on Wednesday - weather permitting - and Sean Calvert has another underdog wager on day three...

"It seems to me that in slow, windy conditions Coria has a pretty good chance of making Dimitrov play and play until the errors come from the Bulgarian's racquet."

We were in profit on Tuesday in Belgrade when Filip Krajinovic beat David Goffin as underdog, but unlucky with the second wager when Dusan Lajovic lost from 1.121/8 in-play to Taro Daniel in a final set tie break.

Lajovic had led the final set 3-1, 40-0, but failed to see it out after Krajinovic had defeated Goffin in straight sets.

The next couple of days look like they'll be pretty tough conditions in Barcelona, with rain and wind expected on both Wednesday and Thursday, so bettors will need to keep a close eye on the changing weather forecast.

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And you'd think that the conditions becoming slower, heavier and windier would make life tough for a shot maker like Grigor Dimitrov, who went deep in Monte-Carlo last week and may well be leggy anyway.

The weather was fine all week in Monaco and Dimitrov's slice was effective and the surface lively enough (Court Rainier III was clocked at around 29 to 31 CPI) for Dimitrov to play his game to good effect.

This week, if this match is played after or during the rain, which it probably will be, it may well be a whole different set of conditions for Dimitrov, and this could be made tougher by the grinding style of Federico Coria.

The pair have never met until now and it seems to me that in slow, windy conditions Coria has a pretty good chance of making Dimitrov play and play until the errors come from the Bulgarian's racquet.

Dimitrov's excellent week in Monte-Carlo (where he often plays well - he's 21-10 win/loss) has seen his stats pushed up as high as they're likely to go this year on clay at 81% holds/24% breaks = 105 and his service points won/return points won total is currently also 105.

But those are based on only 10 matches - five of which were at Monte-Carlo - and in Barcelona he's 3-4 win/loss, so the Bulgarian has found it tough to back up his Monte-Carlo form here.

Coria in the last year on clay at main level has a hold/break total of 101 and a combined service points won/return points won total of 102, so there's not that much in it on the stats in any case, and all things considered I'm happy to have a point on Coria at 2.9215/8.

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I wonder what sort of an effort we're going to get this week from Nikoloz Basilashvili, who hasn't looked fully fit for a while and was last seen retiring against Dimitrov last week in Monte-Carlo citing dyspnea (breathing difficulties).

Basil hasn't offered much lately, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the changing conditions meant that his huge groundstrokes kept annoyingly low and therefore tough for Jaume Munar to deal with.

Munar is exactly the sort of opponent that Basil hates - one that gets everything back and makes him play a few more shots when Basil would like to finish it with one hit - and even in the damp, Munar will probably be too motivated for Basil to handle.

I find Carlos Taberner a very tough one to call, with a prime example being the last two tournament weeks, where he lost 6-1, 6-1 to Joao Sousa in Monte-Carlo and then after qualifying in Barcelona without dropping a set he beat Seb Korda (who himself beat Carlos Alcaraz last week) 6-3, 6-0, making his combined scores in Barcelona this week 36 games won to just eight against.

If we're assuming that he's going to keep that form going (which is never a given) Taberner should have every chance against the struggling Felix Auger-Aliassime, who's lost five of his last six matches now.

Felix still has better main level clay numbers than Taberner over the past year, so he has to be favourite for me, but 1.434/9 looks plenty short enough in what will be tough playing conditions and Taberner will have his backers today.

Humbert looks good value against De Minaur

But at the same sort of price I prefer the idea of backing Ugo Humbert to beat Alex De Minaur, whose record on clay is at best mediocre and it looks like Humbert is starting to put his funk behind him a little bit now.

Beating Pablo Andujar in straight sets on clay has to be a good sign for Humbert, who has been grumbling about the Covid vaccination possibly affecting his fitness, and on the evidence of Tuesday he looks to be back on track.

Humbert is 7-14 win/loss (33.3% win rate) while De Minaur is 7-15 (31.8%) and it's the Frenchman that has the better hold/break total (94 compared to 91 for De Minaur) and the better service points won/return points won total (98 compared to 97), so the Frenchman is slightly the better on the numbers.

Both of these men would, of course, prefer a much quicker surface, but of the two of them it's actually Humbert that just has the edge on the main level clay stats.

Humbert also has a match under his belt here in Barcelona, while De Minaur is coming here cold from Monte-Carlo and I can't have ADM as a 1.444/9 chance here, so I'm happy to have a point on Humbert at these prices.

Djokovic back in action in Belgrade

Novak Djokovic victory fist 1280.jpg

Moving on to Belgrade now and all eyes will be on world number one Novak Djokovic, who's looking for a big improvement on his disappointing performance last week in Monte-Carlo, but Djokovic says he "wasn't fully ready" for Monaco and that he "hopes to play more matches in Belgrade than Monte-Carlo."

Hardly convincing rhetoric coming out of the Djokovic camp, then, and it wouldn't be a huge shock if compatriot Laslo Djere were to defeat Djokovic in his opening match in Belgrade.

The layers had Djokovic at around 1.141/7 to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and this time they make him pretty much the same price again to beat Djere.

Djere has never faced Djokovic in a competitive match, so I wonder if he'll have the mental strength to beat Djokovic in his own tennis centre?

I'm not sure he will, but the handicaps are definitely an option here if you're expecting Djere to make this close.

Rain is likely to be an issue in Belgrade as well as Barcelona, but the forecast doesn't look as bad, with the rain expected to clear up in the early afternoon, but it may make for some slow conditions.

Karen Khachanov usually plays Barcelona, where he played as a junior, coached by Galo Blanco in those days, so it's a little surprising that he's playing Belgrade this week, but I guess Mr Djokovic came calling.

On paper, Khachanov should be too strong for fellow Russian Roman Safiullin, who has a limited record on clay (7-20 win/loss on clay at Challenger level and just 2-1 at main level), but he played well at the French Open last year, making the last-64 as a qualifier.

Miomir Kecmanovic should be too strong for John Millman, who said of their practice session the other day: "He's a good friend of mine, we practiced a few days ago and he chopped me!"

Filip Krajinovic Dubai 2022.jpg

Filip Krajinovic should also prove too solid on the backhand side for Thiago Monteiro to deal with and Krajinovic actually has a very impressive record against lefties on clay at all levels.

The Serb has won 22 of his last 25 matches against lefties, going back to 2013, and I'd expect him to make that 23 from 26 here.

Nothing really appeals in Belgrade, so it's a case of hoping that we get some play on Wednesday in Barcelona.