ATP Barcelona Tips: Rinderknech an attractive price against mediocre Munar

Sean Calvert
18 April 2022

Arthur Rinderknech – Australian Open 2022

Rinderknech has better clay stats than Munar over the last 12 months at main level

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The clay swing of the 2022 ATP Tour continues in week 16 at the Barcelona Open and the Serbia Open and Sean Calvert likes two underdogs on day one...

"If we look at Munar's numbers over the past 12 months on clay at main level they're not great and not as good as those of his opponent today, Arthur Rinderknech."

The ATP Tour moves on to Barcelona and Belgrade this week, with the prestigious Trofeo Conde de Godó up for grabs at the Barcelona Open, while Novak Djokovic is back in action at the Serbia Open.

Belgrade has only been back on the tour for a year (although it was played twice in 2021 to fill a gap in the calendar ahead of the French Open), but Barcelona is into its 69th edition in 2022, so there are plenty of stats from there to consider.

In the last eight editions, the Barcelona Open has averaged 31% underdog winners and that percentage was boosted a little by the unusually high 50% dog winners that occurred in 2017 when it rained a lot and conditions were damp.

It's also set to be rainy from Tuesday until Sunday in Barcelona this week, so conditions are set to get slower as the week progresses if that forecast is correct.

In terms of frequency of underdog winners, round one has averaged 37% in the last eight editions and the semi finals have averaged 38% in that same timeframe.

If you'd backed all of the underdogs in round one of the Barcelona Open in its last five editions for just £10 per bet you'd be in profit to the tune of around £60.

Day one of the main draw at the Barcelona Open has nine matches set to be played and the first price that stands out to me as being too short is that of Jaume Munar, who once again has been put in at around the 1.384/11 mark after losing at around that sort of price last week in Monte-Carlo against Federico Delbonis.

Looking at Munar's performance when priced-up as favourite on clay at main level we can see that he's lost six of his last nine, so he's been anything but a reliable favourite lately on this surface.

Munar won only 37% of his second serve points against Delbonis last week and if we look at Munar's numbers over the past 12 months on clay at main level they're not great and not as good as those of his opponent today, Arthur Rinderknech.

Munar has won only 38% of his main level clay matches in the last year (8-13 win/loss) and in those 21 matches he's achieved a service hold/break total of 100 and a combined service points won/return points won total of 100.

Looking at Munar's performance when priced-up as favourite on clay at main level we can see that he's lost six of his last nine, so he's been anything but a reliable favourite lately on this surface.

Rinderknech in the same period of time has won 56% of his main level clay matches (10-8 win/loss) with a hold/break total of 104 and a combined service points won/return points won total of 102, so the Frenchman has slightly the better stats.

Admittedly, several of Rinderknech's clay matches were played at altitude in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel, but he also made the quarter finals in Bastad, where it's as slow as it gets, so I'm happy to side the underdog here.

With the weather in Barcelona over the last few days having been fine and it's set to be decent again on Monday (and rainy for the rest of week from Tuesday onwards) the courts should play to a reasonable pace and Rinderknech +3.5 games at slight odds against 2.1011/10 looks a decent play.

Adrian Mannarino Montpellier 22.jpg

Elsewhere in Barcelona on Monday the other one that stands out to me as being slightly peculiar odds is the clash between two players who are nowhere near their best on clay: Adrian Mannarino and Egor Gerasimov.

We know that Mannarino prefers quick, low-bouncing surfaces to show his best tennis, but so does Gerasimov, and while Gerasimov has the advantage of having won two matches in qualies to get here is it that big an advantage on a surface he usually struggles on?

Gerasimov has won only two of his last 11 main level matches and on clay he's 2-7 win/loss in his career at main level, with a hold/break total of just 88, so I'm not sure I agree with the pricing of this match.

Mannarino beat Pablo Cuevas here in Barcelona 2018 as a 3.1085/40 underdog and then lost 8-6 in a final set tie break to Pablo Carreno Busta as a 3.77 chance, plus he took Hugo Dellien to 7-5 in the third set last week in Monte-Carlo, so on his day the Frenchman can play on clay.

He's also got a 3-1 career series lead over Gerasimov (all on hard or indoor hard) and at these prices I don't mind taking Mannarino for small stakes.

Kecmanovic not a certainty at short odds in Belgrade

Richard Gasquet AO 2022.jpg

Over in Belgrade, they have just the four main draw matches to start the week with on Monday and they look reasonably priced, with perhaps Miomir Kecmanovic a little short against Richard Gasquet at 1.331/3.

I like Kecmanovic's chances this week, but that price looks plenty short enough on clay against an opponent who's still effective and can be dangerous on this surface when fully fit.

So, just one point on Rinderknech +3.5 games at around 2.1011/10 and half a point on Mannarino at 3.02/1 for me today.