ATP Astana Tips: Qualifier Djere can test rusty Rublev in US Open rematch

The elite of men's tennis in action this week

The big names in the men's game are out en masse this week, with eight of the world's top-10 scheduled to be playing at either the Rakuten Japan Open in Tokyo or at the Astana Open in Kazakhstan.

The Astana Open (the city is back to being called Astana again after the incoming president reversed a decision by the previous incumbent to call it Nur-Sultan in honour of himself) has had quite the makeover this year.

Last year it was a very mediocre (to put it kindly) 250 whose final was contested by Soonwoo Kwon and James Duckworth for a winner's cheque of $47,000 and now the winner will get $335,000 after it was bumped up to a 500.

This is all due to the cancellation of tournaments again this year in China (and Russia) and they play here on a really slow Greenset surface that has averaged just 76% holds in the two years that it's been staged.

Unless they've speeded up considerably from previous years it'll be very much on the slow side this week, with Emil Ruusuvuori commenting last year: "It's very heavy and slow conditions, so it's almost sometimes easier with the return to win points than with the serve."

Quicker conditions in Tokyo but watch out for rain

It's usually a fair bit quicker in Tokyo, where they play on the same Decoturf outdoor hard surface that they used in Seoul last week and they'll also be using Dunlop balls (not sure yet if it's the same Dunlop AO ones that thy used in Seoul).

Toko hasn't been played for the men on the tour since 2019, but the Olympic tennis event was held here last year and the conditions were quick then.

The weather is set to play its part as well this week, with rain expected from Wednesday onwards and quite a lot of it, so the roof will come into play on Centre Court for much of the week if the forecast is correct.

Monday's play in Tokyo offered little of any betting interest to me, so I'm focusing on Astana on day one and the late match on Centre Court between Andrey Rublev and Laslo Djere.

This one will be played at around 3pm UK time and I expect this to be more of a struggle for Rublev than the prices indicate.

Until recently Djere was a virtual gimme for most top-20 or so players on any surface that wasn't clay, but things have changed of late.

The Serbian impressed in Winston-Salem, where he made the final on their reasonably paced Laykold surface and using Wilson US Open balls, so it was hardly slow that week.

Indeed, he beat Sofia champion Marc-Andrea Huesler in the semis in Winston-Salem and he backed that up in New York by going all the way to five sets in round one against none other than Andrey Rublev.

And that match came only three days after the Winston-Salem final, so Djere must have been fatigued, yet he came from to sets down to lose 6-4 in the fifth in a match where Rublev scored just seven more points.

Djere actually out-aced Rublev in that match and created more break point chances than the Russian, so it was a tight contest.

Now we're in a situation where Djere has qualified in Astana, so he'll be more match sharp on this slow Greenset hard court, and Rublev will be playing his first match since the US Open over three weeks ago.

Djere made the quarter finals of this tournament last year and he won't fear Rublev, so I'm happy to take the Serbian with a 3.5 game start on the handicap here at 2.26/5 for just half a point.

Elsewhere, Aslan Karatsev is in shocking form at the moment and lost to clay courter Tomas Martin Etcheverry last week on indoor hard in Tel Aviv, but his opponent on Monday (number 123 Zhizhen Zhang is joint-favourite today.

That tells a tale about Karatsev's form right now and there's no value in qualifier Zhang at a price like 2.01/1 so I'll pass on that one.

Two of my outrights are playing on Monday, so I hope there's no early exit for either Hubert Hurkacz or Felix Auger-Aliassime, and I would expect Hurkacz to beat Francisco Cerundolo, but FAA has a tough one against Roberto Bautista Agut.

On his form of Davis Cup and Laver Cup and his 3-1 career series lead over RBA I'm hopeful that FAA can progress, but he's rather short at 1.68/13 given that he was priced up as slight dog the last time they met in Sydney at the start of this year.

So, just the one bet on Monday and that's Djere +3.5 for half a point.