-
Sabalenka's serve likely to be too strong
-
Repeat shock win for Haddad Maia extremely unlikely
-
Favs fancied to progress to Saturday's final
Sabalenka favourite to get past Muchova
We have a later start at Roland Garros on Thursday with just the women's singles semi-finals on the schedule - there is no men's action today with the same stage being played on Friday in that event.
At 1400 UK time, Karolina Muchova and Aryna Sabalenka meet in the first clash, and it's our pre-tournament outright selection Sabalenka who is the 1.331/3 favourite to make the final. It's been fairly plain sailing for Sabalenka to reach this stage, winning ten of ten sets competed albeit against lowly-ranked opposition - she's still to meet a player ranked inside the top 30.
Data suggests market pricing is correct
In fact, Muchova did just that in round one, beating the eighth seed Maria Sakkari, and the Czech has dropped just the one set herself in an impressive run to this stage - a bagel against Nadia Podoroska in round two where she recovered to win 6-3 in a deciding set. So, both players have had little realistic trouble to reach the semi-finals.
Data-wise, in the event so far, Sabalenka has the edge, holding serve 12% more in her five matches and only having a slight deficiency on return, so with 2023 clay data having a similar dynamic as well, it's pretty difficult to make a case for the market being wrong in its consensus. It looks like Muchova is going to have to win a high percentage of return points if she is to be successful this afternoon.
Świątek in linę to continue dominance
If that task is tricky for Muchova, it's even more difficult for Beatriz Haddad Maia, who is the next player priced at double-digits in an individual match against Iga Swiatek. The world number one, Swiatek, is just 1.071/14 to make the final.
It's been a similar story all tournament for Swiatek, with the 1.111/9 against Cori Gauff in the previous round being her biggest pre-match price, and she's justified the market faith having not been even close to dropping a set so far. In total, her set record stands at 53-15 in her five matches so far.
Conversely, Haddad Maia, who was close to defeat in set two of her win over Ons Jabeur in the last round, has needed three sets in her last four matches to progress. Three single-break deciding set victories shows just how difficult her path to this stage has been.
However, the Brazilian has defeated Swiatek in their only career meeting so far - on hard court last August in Canada - so she will be hoping for a repeat this afternoon. However, clay data this season, which gives Swiatek a massive advantage on both serve and return, makes that an extremely unlikely prospect. Swiatek being defeated today would be the shock of the tournament so far.