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Muchova meets Swiatek in Saturday's final
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Swiatek huge favourite for another French Open trophy
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Muchova with strong record against top players
Muchova battles past Sabalenka to reach final
For a time in Sabalenka's semi-final, it looked like we would see the Swiatek v Sabalenka final which many thought likely prior to the tournament, but Sabalenka failed to close it out from 5-2 up in the decider, and also failed to convert a match point in the process.
Such fine margins often determine matches played at the highest level, and it's Karolina Muchova who benefitted from them in that semi-final, with the Czech now meeting the pre-tournament favourite Iga Swiatek on Saturday afternoon in the Championship match.
Swiatek's Roland Garros data truly outstanding
Defending champion Swiatek has now got a 24-1 record at Roland Garros since she broke into the top 100, and quite incredibly, is on for another clean sweep in terms of winning the title without dropping a set - a feat she achieved as an unseeded player in 2020.
Even more incredible is Swiatek's set stats at this venue since 2020, where she is 45-3 in sets, with only Maria Sakkari and Qinwen Zheng able to take a set from the world number one.
Furthermore, after four bagels in the early rounds, Swiatek is 66-23 in games this tournament as well, and this, as well as all the stats in the last paragraph, adequately illustrate quite how dominant the Pole has been against her opposition this year and in previous years at the French Open as well.
A look at the data from this year's tournament so far is interesting, with service points won percentages for the duo being very similar, but Swiatek stratospheric on return, winning over 11% more service points and breaking opposition around 2/3 of the time in return games - these are return numbers pretty much unseen on the WTA Tour.
With 2023 clay season data also hugely in Swiatek's favour, it's pretty difficult to dispute that she should be an overwhelming favourite to win the French Open for the third time.
The Betfair Exchange market agrees, pricing her up at 1.152/13 at the time of writing, which is in line with my thoughts as well.
Some cause for optimism for Muchova
So does Muchova have any cause for optimism? There are some positives she can take into the clash. Firstly, she's never lost to Swiatek, although their only main tour meeting was in 2019 when Swiatek was barely a top 100 player.
In addition, Muchova is 4-2 against top five opposition since the start of 2021 (her wins have come against Sabalenka here, plus Sakkari, Osaka and Barty).
However, Muchova was never even close to this level of underdog status in any of those matches (she was priced around 5.004/1 against Barty, for example) and it just looks like this is going to be far too big a task against Swiatek - the best player on tour by a long way.
For those looking to play up those short odds on a Swiatek win, nearly 1.51/2 is available on the straight sets win. For those who believe Muchova can get a set at least, the 2-1 Swiatek win is 5.24/1.