The women's singles at the French Open moves into the second round on Wednesday, and following a day of routine wins for big names, Dan Weston returns to preview the day ahead...
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Rybakina and Swiatek safely though
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Sabalenka looking for round three spot
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Rakhimova the Wednesday pick
Andreeva one step closer to Gauff clash
The likes of Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek progressed with minimal fuss in straight sets in their opener on Tuesday, while the potential future superstar Mirra Andreeva who was a similar pre-match price to those two outright market leaders, easily got past Alison Riske to set up a very winnable round two match against Diane Parry. Cori Gauff potentially awaits in round three.
With those matches taking place in the top half of the draw, we have bottom half action which includes Aryna Sabalenka, who is an overwhelming pre-match favourite against qualifier Aryna Shymanovic, and the shortest-priced of all players on the women's schedule on Wednesday.
Tauson slight favourite over Fernandez
Focusing on more competitive-looking matches, it's interesting to see the market give Clara Tauson a marginal edge over former US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez. Certainly Tauson is more of a natural on clay, and I just hope we can see her finally rubber-stamp her potential and rapidly move back up the rankings after injury issues. While I think Tauson has a much higher ceiling on the surface, I don't see much in the data to dispute the 1.9620/21 market price about her for this.
Another match which the market is finding it tough to split two players is Elise Mertens versus Camila Osorio, who picked up a lucky loser spot after losing to Andreeva in qualifiers. Mertens won their only previous meeting as a 1.251/4 favourite last year on grass, but clay is much more of a leveller for the duo and Mertens is over 60 ticks bigger here at the current 1.8810/11.
I think it's fair to say that Mertens has had an uninspiring clay season so far, going 3-3 from six matches all as a pre-match favourite, so you can see why Osorio has her supporters here after some decent results against strong players of late on the surface.
Rakhimova with higher ceiling than Frech
Moving on, I'm surprised to see Kamilla Rakhimova an underdog at 2.305/4 versus Magdalena Frech, given Rakhimova's slight better clay data, particularly on return. She also beat Frech in Madrid last season, and has shown some ability in competent displays against decent opposition, including beating Andreeva, keeping it very close against Karolina Muchova and a run to the semi-final in Bogota several months ago.
Given Rakhimova's higher ceiling for her career too, being four years younger than Frech who has still to make the top 80 at 25 years of age, I think the underdog line is some decent value.
Fascinating match-up for Samsonova against Pavlyuchenkova
Finally, the market is keen on Liudmilla Samsonova against former French Open runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. It's tough to know where Pav's game is at right now - she's suffered some tough losses since her injury comeback, including both brutal scorelines and losses to opposition she'd be expected to beat, so you can see what the market is thinking in making Samsonova the 1.4840/85 favourite here. If Pav is at a decent level, this could look short-priced, but I don't know enough about that yet to make an informed decision.