Women's French Open Day Eight Tips: Svitolina value to go seven from seven

Dan Weston
03 June 2023
3:00 min read

Elina Svitolina has won all her previous matches against Daria Kasatkina

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With Elena Rybakina withdrawing from the French Open and Iga Swiatek winning with a double bagel on Saturday, there's plenty of drama in the outright market. Dan Weston returns...

Market leaders benefit from Rybakina exit
Pav and Mertens around even money apiece
Svitolina could provide upset value

Swiatek moving odds-on after Rybakina withdrawal

Following Rybakina's exit, tournament favourite Iga Swiatek is now moving heavier into odds-on territory with the market moving the Pole shorter to a current 1.684/6. This has also resulted in Aryna Sabalenka being the clear second favourite at 6.25/1, with all other players well into double-digit pricing at the time of writing.

Action starts at 1000 UK time on Sunday and there's four matches from the fourth round on the schedule. Sabalenka, plus Karolina Muchova, are strong favourites to make the quarter-finals, with Sabalenka facing Sloane Stephens, and Muchova meeting lucky loser Elina Avanesyan, who is set to break into the top 100 after her run in this tournament.

Market finding it tough to split Pavlyuchenkova and Mertens

After picking up an excellent underdog winner for this column on Friday, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova meets Elise Mertens, with the market very marginally favouring Pavlyuchenkova at the current 1.9720/21.

The duo haven't met since 2017, with one win apiece that year, and Mertens has had the easier run to this stage in terms of sets played, defeating third seed Jessica Pegula in the third round in an impressive win. The Belgian hadn't impressed much on clay this season prior to the last week, with some disappointing losses to players ranked outside the top 50, and while Pav is also (due to injury) it's clear that she should be ranked much higher.

On clay this season, data shows the two players are difficult to split. Pav has the edge on serve, but Mertens on return has been strong, so you can see why the market is also having the duo at around even money apiece.

Svitolina capable of underdog victory

The other more likely competitive match features Darya Kasatkina, who is a 1.618/13 favourite to get past Elina Svitolina, who has won all six of their previous meetings. However, those were before Svitolina's long break from tour action, and Svitolina is also on a seven match unbeaten run currently.

Kasatkina also looks in decent form, having eased through to the fourth round without dropping a set, but there's not an abundance of evidence to suggest she should be such a short-priced favourite here. There's not much between the two players on clay this year, statistically, so given this and the previous (but old) head-to-head history, Svitolina looks a decent enough pick at an underdog price.

Recommended bets

Back Elina Svitolina at 2.568/5

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