Novak Djokovic faces Rafa Nadal in today's Men's Singles final, and it's the Spaniard who Dan Weston likes as value to win his 13th French Open title...
"Across the tournament so far, Nadal has won around 2% more on each of service and return points against his six opponents compared to Djokovic. The King of Clay is also yet to drop a set - Djokovic has dropped three - and these numbers are positives for Nadal backers."
Swiatek completes perfect tournament with final victory
14 sets played, 14 sets won. No set won by a closer margin than 6-4. 10 out of 14 sets won by a 6-1 or 6-2 scoreline. The story of Iga Swiatek's path to the title at the French Open yesterday. This has been an utterly dominant performance over the last two weeks and, as stated in this column throughout the previous 12 months or so, the 19-year-old Pole is on the journey to future stardom. Pleasingly, our women's campaign finished with a nice winner, with Swiatek getting the job done for us to conclude a strong women's tournament.
Djokovic and Nadal continue elite dominance
While Swiatek versus Sofia Kenin was a rather unlikely women's final before the event started, Novak Djokovic versus Rafa Nadal had a far stronger likelihood. The elite duo were seeded to meet at this stage and were strong market favourites to do so, showing the dominance of the biggest names on the men's tour currently - not much seems to have changed post-lockdown.
Across the tournament so far, Nadal has won around 2% more on each of service and return points against his six opponents compared to Djokovic. The King of Clay is also yet to drop a set - Djokovic has dropped three - and these numbers are positives for Nadal backers.
Nadal value following slight market drift
I also think Nadal is a decent price today, particularly given the overnight drift. When I priced up the match yesterday morning, Nadal looked value at just shy of 5/71.70 but the Exchange market is now offering the Spaniard at 4/51.78.
Given Nadal has around a 10% hold/break advantage over the last 18 months on clay as well as being the better player to get to this stage, I'm struggling to understand this market line. Not only this, but Nadal has been simply dominant at the French Open previously, winning 12 out of 12 finals, and this dominance basically extends to all non-fast clay events.
Nadal also exhibits a strong edge in clay head-to-head matches throughout their illustrious careers, with Djokovic holding less than 70% of the time in those matches, and a rather return-orientated theme looks likely today. I'd be surprised if both players were dominant on serve and we might well quite a few breaks of serve, and break-backs.
However, it is Nadal that I think is value to win his 13th Roland Garros title and the 4/51.78 about the King of Clay is our final recommendation of the 2020 French Open.
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Back Rafa Nadal at 4/51.78 to beat Novak Djokovic