Men's French Open Semi Final Tips: Alcaraz can start era of dominance

• Alcaraz versus Djokovic the highlight

• World number one looking a value favourite

• Tough to split Ruud and Zverev in other semi-final

Alcaraz versus Djokovic - the match we've been waiting for

It's the match we've been waiting for - Carlos Alcaraz against Novak Djokovic. The El Classico of the Tennis world. A match most fans have been anticipating since the draw placed them both in the top half, and the clash has never really been in much doubt since round one.

In the tournament so far, Alcaraz has been far the better player though, winning 70% of games to Djokovic's 63%, and winning around 4% more for both service and return points - in fact the Spaniard has won over 50% of return points in a stunning display of outclassing his opponents.

Alcaraz with better tournament and season data

Djokovic has needed tiebreaks to go his way to avoid trouble, winning all five he competed in, while Alcaraz just needed one - a third set breaker to get past Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarter-final in straight sets. It appears clear to me that Alcaraz has been the much more dominant player to get to this stage.

When looking at the 2023 season clay data as a collective, we see a similar dynamic. Alcaraz has held 5% more and broken 6% more, which makes him a clear favourite for this match - I'd be looking at around the 1.402/5 mark considering this data.

However, the market is less bullish on the world number one's chances, with Alcaraz currently trading at 1.538/15 on the Exchange. In a battle of two supreme returners,

Alcaraz's elite return data gives him a pretty reasonable chance of winning a double-break set, and therefore ensuring he is very likely to cover game handicap lines. We can get around 1.845/6 on Alcaraz giving up 3.5 games which is another option to backing him simply at market pricing for the match win.

Ruud and Zverev almost evens apiece

Whoever wins this match will be a heavy favourite to lift the trophy, with Casper Ruud versus Alexander Zverev being somewhat the undercard to Alcaraz versus Djokovic. Zverev is the very slight pre-match favourite at 1.9720/21.

I find it pretty tricky to dispute market lines. The tournament data so far for the two players is virtually identical, and so are the numbers for the 2023 clay season in entirety.

You can definitely argue that Ruud has been better against better players this year and Zverev has struggled with the step up, and if I was forced to take a position here it would be with Ruud. However, I'm happy to side with Alcaraz minus the games for today's recommendation.