Men's French Open Quarter-Final Tips: Zverev short-priced ahead of Etcheverry clash

• Etcheverry unlikely to be outclassed by Zverev

• Clay data suggests Zverev is too short

• Rune fatigue a big question mark ahead of Ruud clash

Etcheverry deserves to be in first Slam quarter

At the time of writing, the first batch of quarter-finals are still being played, with Novak Djokovic leading Karen Khachanov 2-1 in sets but having been broken back to 4-4 in set four.

In a match lasting almost four hours already, the last thing the Serb will want would be a five-setter, which would significantly impact him ahead of a potential semi-final with Carlos Alcaraz, who meets Stefanos Tsitsipas later in the night match.

Before we have to worry about that though is two quarter-finals on Wednesday starting at 1400 UK time, as Alexander Zverev faces Tomas Etcheverry in the first match, while later in the evening, there's an all-Scandinavian clash as Holger Rune meets Casper Ruud.

For the first, Zverev is a 1.384/11 favourite over Etcheverry, who features in his first Grand Slam quarter-final having never even made it past round two before his run here.

There's little doubt though that Etcheverry deserves to be here, running at 116% combined service/return points won across his four wins so far, which is actually better than Zverev has managed to get to this stage.

Clay data this year makes Zverev short-priced

The Argentinian also comes off a decent run, which got him to the final of the Bordeaux Challenger several weeks ago, and he pushed Novak Djokovic to a tiebreak in Rome the week prior to that. It's a pretty decent form line for Etcheverry.

As for Zverev, he finally got his first top 20 win of the year in round three here against Frances Tiafoe (although whether Tiafoe is a top 20 clay courter is certainly open to debate) and interestingly, there's not a ton between the duo's 2023 clay court data.

Etcheverry has the edge on serve, while Zverev does on return, so all things considered, Zverev looks short-priced here.

The handicap market is still forming on the Exchange, but general market prices suggest we should be able to get around 1.855/6 on Etcheverry with a 5.5 game head start, which looks interesting.

Market reacting to Rune's tough win in previous round

Following this, Ruud is a marginal 1.845/6 favourite to get the better of Rune, which is a little bit of a turnaround from his price against the Dane last month in Rome.

That day, Rune beat Ruud in three sets (Ruud was a set and break up at one stage) with Ruud the 2.407/5 underdog - there's a fairly big price movement between that match and tomorrow.

This is probably down to Rune's brutal five-setter against Francisco Cerundolo in the previous round, which he eventually won 9-7 in a final set tiebreak.

However, a four-hour epic in round four of a Grand Slam generally isn't good news for a player's fatigue levels, and with Ruud having very slightly better clay data this year too, you can understand the market reaction to that clash in Rome.