Improving Medvedev now third favourite for the title
Top six in the market should dominate
Alcaraz with clay edge this year over Djokovic
Medvedev price cut, Rune & Tsitsipas drifting
Daniil Medvedev's triumph in Rome has opened up the next tier of contenders in the French Open outright market on the Exchange, in advance of today's draw.
Following that title, his price has halved, and the observations that I made last week about that 25.024/1 being out of line based on the fact that he was only a slight pre-match underdog against Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune, yet was 2.5x their outright price, have proven to be pretty accurate and eventually resulted in this market correction.
Medvedev now leads the 'second tier' at 13.012/1, with Rune 14.013/1 and Tsitsipas 17.5 friendless in the market after those losses to Medvedev in Rome.
Jannik Sinner 20.019/1 completes the second tier quartet, and again, has drifted after Medvedev's Rome title.
From a data perspective, Sinner looks the strongest option - his return data is far in excess of those other players mentioned - and I'm going to be keeping a close eye on his draw later on this afternoon.
Ruud, Zverev and Rublev with too much to find
Ultimately, it's tricky to think that any other player apart from those four, and obviously the market leaders Carlos Alcaraz 2.707/4 and Novak Djokovic 3.45, is going to be capable of winning Roland Garros.
Casper Ruud has a little too much to find this year, having dropped off a little in service points won in 2023, and some poor losses to lower ranked opposition in clay Masters events, while Alexander Zverev is playing more of a 20-25 ranked player currently following long-term injury.
Andrey Rublev, who won Monte Carlo, has suffered some poor losses of late too, and with a 0-7 record in Grand Slam quarter-finals, again has plenty to find numbers-wise compared to the market leaders.
Alcaraz a deserved outright favourite
So - over to those. Alcaraz and Djokovic. For me, Alcaraz is the justified favourite.
Yes, he was victim to arguably the biggest shock result this year, losing as a 1.021/50 favourite to qualifier Fabian Marozsan in Rome, but he was 24-2 in sets prior to that in post-Miami clay events, and was clearly dominating his opponents.
I'm prepared to give the Spanish phenomenon a little bit of a free pass with that defeat, and given his clay numbers in 2023, merits his place atop of the market.
Djokovic failing to inspire confidence
As for Djokovic, his name will always ensure prominence as one of the market leaders for any tournament he plays.
However, the Serb has struggled to dominate opposition on clay this year despite being heavy favourite in all of the matches he has played - a record of 12-8 in sets is hardly in line with previous levels of dominance, and losses to Musetti in Monte Carlo, Lajovic in Banja Luka plus Rune in Rome hardly give confidence that he's over the elbow injury which has caused him problems this year.
Likewise, Djokovic's clay data this year fails to inspire confidence. He's running at just over 106% combined service/return points won on clay this year, which is more of a solid top 5-10 level as opposed to his imperious best.
For reference, he's had entire seasons running at 112%+ for this key metric, and a big drop in return points won is a factor here. Djokovic will need to get back to those peak levels if he is to lift the French Open trophy in several weeks time.
Following the draw, I'll be returning over the weekend to run through the pathways of the major contenders to the title and to firm up any outright market thoughts.
Head over to the Betfair Sportsbook here to pick your each-way bets for Roland Garros!