Men's French Open Final Tips: Djokovic should give Casper a Ruud awakening

Dan Weston
10 June 2023
3:00 min read

Novak Djokovic is heavy odds-on to be celebrating on Sunday...

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It's the men's singles final at the French Open on Sunday, with Novak Djokovic facing Casper Ruud for the title. Dan Weston returns with his thoughts...

Djokovic and Ruud meet in Sunday's final
Head-to-head data in Djokovic's favour
Ruud with tough task ahead of him

Djokovic too strong for Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz was unable to compete with Novak Djokovic physically in their semi-final on Friday, giving the Serb the underdog victory to progress to Sunday's final, where he meets Casper Ruud who got the better of Alexander Zverev with ease in straight sets in the second semi-final.

Despite his market pricing against Alcaraz, there's certainly no underdog status for Djokovic in the final - the Serb is 1.241/4 to get the better of Ruud, who is currently trading at 5.14/1 on the Exchange.

History suggests Ruud will find things tough on Sunday

Interestingly, the duo have met four times so far in main tour matches, with Djokovic 8-0 up sets in their clashes. The first one, in 2020, has less relevance with Ruud not a top ten player then, but the data from their last three matches shows Djokovic imperious on serve, winning 75% of service points, and putting constant pressure on Ruud's serve, winning 41% of return points - superb numbers for both facets.

This gives a pretty decent illustration of how much Ruud will need to improve in order to shock Djokovic and be celebrating with the trophy on Sunday afternoon. In the tournament so far, the duo have pretty similar serve data but Djokovic has won 4% more points on return, giving a further reminder that he's likely to continually pressurise Ruud's serve and create break point opportunities.

Data gives Djokovic a clear advantage

Across the 2023 clay season so far, there's a similar dynamic - Djokovic having the edge on both serve and return, so it's pretty tricky to quibble much with his status as a heavy favourite, especially when you add in his big-match experience into the argument as well. This is his 34th Grand Slam final (22-11 record) with Ruud having reached two in his career, both last season.

Here last year, Ruud was routined by Rafa Nadal in the final, winning just six games, and he was defeated 3-1 by Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open final as well, and there's a suspicion that he might still have a fair bit to find against the best players in the world. It would surprise me if he really pushed Djokovic tomorrow, who I expect to win fairly comfortably.

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