Men's French Open Day Three Tips: Wolf the pick over Nishioka

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Daniil Medvedev is among the heavy favourites on the Tuesday card...

First round action at the French Open continues on Tuesday with the final batch of matches as the round concludes. Returning to give his thoughts on the day three schedule is Dan Weston...

  • Djokovic and Alcaraz progress in straight sets

  • Nishioka to get a tough run from Wolf

  • Bublik to benefit from opponent downgrade


Auger-Aliassime and Thiem depart on Monday

Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz avoided any major trouble on Monday, winning against lowly opposition in straight sets, but there were defeats for Felix Auger-Aliassime and Dominic Thiem, who both continued their miserable clay seasons so far. British interest continued - just - as Cameron Norrie scraped past Benoit Paire in a five-setter lasting nearly four hours.

Looking to join the likes of Djokovic and Alcaraz in round two are some of the other contenders for the title, including Holger Rune, Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev. All three are sub 1.101/10 to get the job done, which is tough to dispute even at such a short price. This is something of a theme on day three, with most pre-match favourites looking well-set at odds of 1.501/2 or below.

Nishioka easy to oppose

The market is finding it tougher to split Yoshihito Nishioka and JJ Wolf, with Nishioka having a pretty poor clay season so far (2-4) with a particularly unimpressive loss to Daniel Elahi Galan in the Cagliari Challenger a month ago. He's only played twice from the start of May onwards, winning a solitary set.

Despite this, he's only a marginal underdog at 2.0811/10 for his clash with Wolf, who isn't a natural on clay but has given Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev a decent match in his last two losses, and beat Hubert Hurkacz in Rome. This is far in excess of what Nishioka has achieved on clay this year, and long-term clay numbers are hardly inspiring me about the Japanese man either - holding serve just 67% on clay in his entire career. Wolf looks the pick here.

Back JJ Wolf to beat Nishioka @

2.08

Low expectations for Gasquet

Moving on, there's an all-French clash between the veteran Richard Gasquet and Arthur Rinderknech, in what could well be Gasquet's final French Open given that he turns 37 years of age in several weeks.

Preparations for Gasquet took something of a blow with a loss to Mikael Ymer in the first round of Lyon last week, and a brutal 6-0 6-2 loss to Ugo Humbert in the Bordeaux Challenger the week before, and with a loss to Yibing Wu in Rome to top that off, my expectations for Gasquet are pretty low.

However, Rinderknech isn't exactly in stunning form himself, having played just five times since the Miami Masters where he retired in the first set against Taro Daniel, and getting beaten easily by Arthur Cazaux (barely ranked inside the top 200) in Bordeaux.

If there was more evidence Rinderknech was playing at a higher level, he'd look the play at 2.245/4 but I'll give Gasquet enough respect on this occasion.

Zeppieri unlikely to pose a big test for Bublik

Finally, another player who has had a very mixed bag of results on clay this year is Alexander Bublik. A decent run in Rome has been offset by a bagel loss to Marcos Giron in Geneva last week, plus losses to Harold Mayot in Aix-en-Provence, and the Kazakh has proven to be a losing player on clay in his career so far.

Bublik, though, is barely odds-against at 2.1211/10 for his clash with qualifier Guilio Zeppieri, who has a pretty mediocre record on the surface on the main tour, and has unimpressive numbers on the Challenger Tour also.

While qualifying for this event looks impressive, he was a strong pre-match favourite for all three matches, and had barely won a match on clay over the last couple of months. If pushed, my view is that Bublik will benefit from the downgrade in opposition here and isn't a bad shout at an underdog price.


Recommended bets

Back JJ Wolf at 2.0811/10

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