Men's French Open Day Nine Tips: Dimitrov can give Zverev a huge test

Dan Weston
04 June 2023
3:00 min read

Grigor Dimitrov could cause trouble for Alexander Zverev...

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The men's singles continues on Monday at the French Open, as the fourth round concludes. Dan Weston returns with his thoughts...

Alcaraz still leads the outright market
Zverev still looking unconvincing
Ruud can get revenge on Jarry

Big names progress with ease

On a day where ATP favourites went four from four, dropping only one set between them in the process, Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz (both identical 6-3 6-2 6-2 winners) and Stefanos Tsitsipas all earned quarter-final spots. After those victories, Alcaraz is 2.407/5 to win the title, while Djokovic is 2.962/1 as the duo vie for overall favourite status.

Rune faces tough clash with Cerundolo

With Holger Rune priced up as the 10.519/2 third favourite, a victory for the Dane against Francisco Cerundolo on Monday should see him join the market leaders in single-digit pricing. He's 1.402/5 to get the win over the improving Argentine, whose return game could cause him some trouble although Rune's serve is strong (84% hold on clay this season).

Cerundolo comes into the match in good form, losing in the final of the Lyon warm-up event just over a week ago, and if he's still fresh from those exertions plus 11 sets so far to get to this stage, could well keep this closer than the market expects. Rune looks short enough at market prices.

Similarly priced to Rune is Tomas Etcheverry, at 1.3130/100 for his meeting with Yoshihito Nishioka, who picked up a decent underdog winner for us in the previous round. The duo have never met, and Etcheverry (despite playing some decent opposition) is yet to drop a set in the three matches he's won to make this fourth round.

On the flip side, Nishioka has needed five sets twice and, as a heavy pre-match favourite, four sets on the other occasion. He's played 14 completed sets to Etcheverry's seven, and that excess court time could well be a deciding factor here, particularly in a long match.

Zverev still with much to prove this season

Both other favourites are priced around the 1.608/13 mark with Alexander Zverev having that market edge over Grigor Dimitrov, which looks an interesting match to discuss. Dimitrov isn't the player he used to be, and arguably never delivered on his potential, but hasn't dropped a set so far and reached the final of the Geneva warm-up event recently as well.

That kind of level should be enough for Dimitrov to give Zverev a decent match at the very least, particularly the current version which I'm still sceptical about being capable of a top ten level right now.

His win over Frances Tiafoe certainly could have gone either way - he was a tiebreak away from going two sets down - and an almost four-hour match against Tiafoe, who isn't really a natural clay courter, is hardly a ringing endorsement of Zverev's level.

I can certainly see Dimitrov competing well here, and could well be value at the current 2.6813/8.

Back Dimitrov to beat Zverev

2.68

Ruud bigger-priced against Jarry compared to recent clash

Finally, similarly priced to Dimitrov is Casper Ruud for his match with Nicolas Jarry, who shocked the Norwegian in Geneva several weeks ago with a three-set win. However, that day, Ruud was priced up at around 1.351/3 to win, and the current price is a fair departure from that line.

Given that price movement, and the fact that the 'better player' is usually favoured more in best of five set matches, there's a pretty solid argument for Jarry's price being influenced by a fair bit of recency bias. Ruud should get revenge for that defeat in Geneva.

Recommended bets

Back Grigor Dimitrov at 2.6813/8

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