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Rune and Ruud safely through to round four
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Khachanov favourite over Sonego
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Alcaraz facing Musetti test
Nishioka helps us to underdog winner
Yoshihito Nishioka picked up an excellent underdog winner for us on Saturday, progressing in a five-set tussle with Thiago Seyboth Wild, and he joined the likes of Casper Ruud and Holger Rune in making it through to Monday's fourth round matches. However, at the time of writing, Alexander Zverev is struggling against Frances Tiafoe.
Khachanov more solid on serve and return
Prior to those Monday matches though is the start of round four on Sunday, with the first match on the card getting underway at 1000 UK time. This features Karen Khachanov against Lorenzo Sonego, with Khachanov the solid 1.548/15 favourite to continue his tournament.
Sonego earned his place in round four with a tough five-set win as he shocked Andrey Rublev, and I wonder how much this will count against him here, after being on a high with such a victory but having to deal with the physical implications of a near four-hour battle. Prior to this tournament, the Italian hadn't picked up much in that way of decent wins on clay in 2023, so these performances have been a little surprising.
A heavy favourite loss to Gregoire Barrere apart, Khachanov has had a solid clay season, with a win over that man Rublev the highlight as he made the quarter-finals in Madrid, and he even put up a solid showing in a loss to Carlos Alcaraz in that event. This year on clay, Khachanov has a higher percentage of points won on both serve and return, and he looks a worthy favourite here.
Djokovic and Alcaraz heavy favourites
Moving on, the two leaders in the outright market, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, are heavy favourites to pick up another win on Sunday with Djokovic priced up as a virtual bye against the Peruvian clay-courter, Juan Varillas, while Alcaraz faces a tougher task against the improving Lorenzo Musetti, but looks fairly priced at 1.201/5.
Ofner capable of testing Tsitsipas
The remaining clash on Sunday sees Stefanos Tsitsipas face qualifier Sebastian Ofner, and the Greek man is 1.081/12 to get the win. Ofner has done well to make it this far, winning six in a row, and the Austrian is a man in form, having won 13 of his last 15 matches, albeit mostly on the lower Challenger Tour.
Market prices illustrate that it would be tough for Ofner to create a shock here, but if his four-hour epic against Fabio Fognini hasn't taken too much out of him, he could well keep things close enough. As we've often discussed on this column, Tsitsipas' return game tends to prevent him from utterly dominating opposition, and it wouldn't be a shock if Ofner took a set here.