Saturday shocks - but Swiatek continues procession
Iga Świątek continued what seems to be a procession towards the title with a straight-set win over Danka Kovinic, and then saw some of her rivals fall to defeats. Aryna Sabalenka, Paula Badosa and Elena Rybakina all lost as pre-match favourites yesterday, leaving the Pole with even fewer high quality rivals in the top half of the draw to get through before the final.
Underdog value - Trevisan over Sasnovich
Matches begin at 1000 UK time today, with the Italian clay-courter Martina Trevisan facing Aliaksandra Sasnovich, in arguably the lowest-profile fourth round match of the day.
The market is finding it tricky to split the duo, with Sasnovich a very marginal 1.9520/21 favourite to make the quarter-finals, and I'm a little surprised by this. The two players have very similar clay-court service numbers in the last 12 months, but Trevisan does have better return data and comes into the match in excellent form, having won the Rabat ITF recently and not having dropped a set in this tournament so far.
I wonder whether the market is overvaluing Sasnovich after beating Emma Raducanu and Angelique Kerber in the previous rounds, but I think if this match was played several weeks ago, the line would be a little different so Trevisan does look the value here.
Similarly priced as favourites - Anisimova and Gauff
In the other matches today, Amanda Anisimova looks a very justified favourite over Leylah Fernandez, currently trading at 1.528/15 against the Canadian. She comfortably has better serve and return numbers on clay this season, so it's difficult to dispute the market here.
However, at a similar price is Cori Gauff for her match against Elise Mertens, and I'm less sure about this line. Gauff being over-rated by the market compared to her numbers isn't a particularly new phenomenon, but I guess the main debate is whether the leg injury suffered by Mertens in the run-up to this tournament will hamper the Belgian. If Mertens is fully fit, this price on Gauff looks short.
Teichmann favourite to end Stephens' journey
Finally, Jil Teichmann should have enough to end Sloane Stephens' resurgence here. The Swiss left-hander has better clay numbers than Stephens both in the medium and short-term and comes into the event in good form, albeit with a slight injury picked up in Rome.
Despite that though, Teichmann didn't have issues in the early rounds here as a heavy favourite, and fought to get past Victoria Azarenka in a close clash on Friday, so I'm anticipating her to get the job done here at 1.564/7.
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