French Open Wednesday Tips: Back these three matches to feature odds-against wins

• Back favourites to drop a set

• Khachanov revenge mission

• Solid picks for Free Bet promotion when you place a Bet Builder

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The first round of the French Open has flown by, and unfortunately so have the chances of my 80/181.00 outright selection Francisco Cerundolo who had a shocking day at the office in defeat to the big serving Canadian Gabriel Diallo.

This season the Argentine had amassed more clay court wins than any other player prior to Roland Garros, but didn't bring that form with him to Paris. 

It's the major shock of the men's draw so far, other than fourth seeded Taylor Fritz who fell at the first hurdle to Daniel Altmaier although expectations were low for the injury hit American.

On Wednesday I'm looking at matches where I expect the favourite to win, but they may take the scenic route to get there.

Check out my tips involving Reilly Opelka, Frances Tiafoe and Karen Khachanov below.

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Opelka can grab set off Navone

 

In round one, Mariano Navone was a convincing winner over big-serving American Brandon Nakashima. The Argentine got over the line in four sets, easily winning the final two 6/1 and 6/2.

That match should prepare him nicely for tackling another powerful servebot in the form of Reilly Opelka. The 6ft 11inch Michigan native is clawing his way back on to tour after several injury-hit seasons, and is capable of beating anyone as Novak Djokovic discovered at the start of this season.

There is nothing any opponent can do about Opelka's serve when he's hitting his spots. In the final two sets of his first round victory Opelka was able to hold serve throughout despite heavy clay conditions.

However, Navone will be a step up in quality for Opelka from Rinky Hijikata in round one. Navone plays his best tennis on the clay and will make Opelka hit a lot of balls over the course of the contest.

It is difficult to imagine that a player as reliant on his serve as Opelka will be able to sustain a consistent level in all five sets on this surface, and it is reasonable to expect that Navone can grind him down as he did versus Nakashima.

Navone is a horribly short 3/101.30 to get the win against a player who is capable of grabbing a set or two from tiebreaks. It is over the five sets where you'd expect the ultra fit Navone's advantage to be fully realised.

I am therefore keen on Navone to win and both players to win a set at 13/102.30

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Big Foe, big run

 

Frances Tiafoe produced by some distance his best clay court performance of the season in a comfortable first round defeat of Roman Safiullin.

Until then it had been a hit and miss campaign from the tournament's 15th seed. Tiafoe is a player that is highly entertaining to watch, but he is notoriously inconsistent and especially so at this tournament where he holds a four wins, nine losses record prior to the start of this year's edition.

He has a reasonable chance of meeting his seeded expectation which he will achieve by making the fourth round. He is favourite to do so as forecasted is an entirely winnable third round clash against Sebastian Korda or Jenson Brooksby.

First though, Tiafoe will have to defeat veteran Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta. The 33-year old is in the latter stages of a fruitful career, where he has built his success on baseline discipline and consistency.

It is a recipe that on most days would bring out the good, the bad and the ugly from the Tiafoe game.

Ultimately the American should have too much in hand if he plays to his ability, but PCB has every chance of nicking a set when Tiafoe's concentration dips as most evidence suggests it will.

Back Tiafoe to win and both players to win a set at [7/5].

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Khachanov to gain quick revenge

 

Last week I watched Sebastian Ofner impressively and deservedly defeat Karen Khachanov in Geneva.

The Austrian clay court specialist is in fine form, eventually reaching the semi-final to back up a competitive showing at the Rome Masters.

In Switzerland Ofner used the altitude conditions to his advantage to expertly hit through the Russian's grinding defences. It was a victory for the shotmaker on that occasion.

However, there are a few reasons why I anticipate Khachanov will gain revenge. Firstly, Ofner is not long back from injury, and has spoken about his happiness at getting wins under his belt. 

Although it has been good of late, I think it is unlikely that Ofner can continue this consistent run, and that there is likely to be a negative reaction to his recent efforts.

Secondly, I think Khachanov is playing to a very good standard recently. Khachanov pushed Carlos Alcaraz in Rome, and his performance levels have been good despite results not quite going his way.

There was very little to pick between them in Geneva, and I think the slower conditions of Paris swing the match enough in Khachanov's direction.

I do however respect the form of Ofner and can see him taking at least a set. At 11/82.38 a Khachanov win where both players win a set makes sense.

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Danilovic can repeat Collins win

 

In last year's French Open Olga Danilovic upset Danielle Collins at a whopping 4.57/2 price pre-match.

Collins had been in the form of her life throughout the first half of the 2024 season and was expected to steamroller past the Serbian player.

It was a disrespectful price for a Collins victory then, and although the odds this time round are more balanced I think it still underappreciates the ability of Danilovic on this surface.

Prior to that French Open meeting, Danilovic almost defeated the American in Madrid leading by a set and break before blinking. Danilovic has a game tailor made for clay courts, and it is easy to understand why she causes an ultra aggressive ball striker like Collins hardship.

Danilovic is in good form, cruising past the seeded Leylah Annie Fernandez in the opening round for the loss of only four games, while Collins had an almighty struggle against Britain's Jodie Burrage who served for the opening set and who might have won with a bit more experience on her side.

At 11/102.11 the value is on Danilovic to get the win.

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Faith in Cristian

I was very impressed yesterday by Jaqueline Cristian's dominant victory over Kimberley Birrell.

It was near impossible to hit the ball past the Romanian, who moved excellently and was counter punching in the rallies very effectively.

Her opponent Sara Bejlek is an up and coming clay court talent who took full advantage of a horror show from Marta Kostyuk, to also enjoy a serene passage into the second round.

It was a bizarre performance from Kostyuk whose mind clearly wasn't on the tennis court. She subsequently withdrew from the doubles tournament in order to return home.

Bejlek has a quirky game and stands at only 157cm tall. She has weapons and a good temperament but she is still learning the game, and Cristian's experience is another useful advantage.

Cristian's court coverage was so impressive that a repeat performance should see her through here. At 8/111.73 it is one to consider adding into bet builders.

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