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Carlos Alcaraz supplants Novak Djokovic as world's best
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Stefanos Tsitsipas is the value in the top-half of draw
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Jannik Sinner is the value in the bottom-half of draw
A seismic ratings shift for Alcaraz
As worlds go, the one of tennis ratings spreadsheets I inhabit might seem banal and humdrum to some, with little happening of import or excitement.
It's true: this world is controlled, systematic, methodical. But events of the last few months have been anything other than trivial and boring. They have been seismic.
Because, on 24th April, for the first time in 20 years, a player other than Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal or Novak Djokovic became the best player in the world according to my ratings.
The fateful numbers ticked-over when Carlos Alcaraz won the Madrid Masters, his 28th match win - with only two losses - since returning from injury in February.
If only it was really that dramatic.
Because whilst the facts above are accurate, the real story of the change in world's best player has been Novak Djokovic's dribbling form. After the heights of his Australian Open win in January, Djokovic has slumped to four defeats in 12 matches, including to lowly-ranked Dusan Lajovic and Lorenzo Musetti on clay, suggesting that Djokovic is far from his imperious and consistent best.
Alcaraz, Djokovic and Tsitsipas in same half of draw
All of which should have set up a symbolic Alcaraz-Djokovic clash in the final of the French Open, where the young pretender could have used his numerical supremacy to rest the physical crown from the old guard's grasp.
Unfortunately, Djokovic's ratings slippage was accompanied by a slip in the ATP world rankings, meaning he is seeded three at Roland Garros, in the same half of the draw as Alcaraz, undermining the historic narrative that, by rights, should have been played out in Paris.
In fact, the whole draw is a bit of a pickle, because Stefan Tsitsipas, the third-best clay-court player in the world on my ratings, also finds himself in the same half of the draw.
How to make sense of a skewed draw
When the draw is so skewed, using ratings to work out what odds a player should be to win a tournament becomes more complicated.
Fortunately, a Monte Carlo simulation - a statistical tool that uses given ratings to play out thousands of simulated tournaments - is generally able to bring some clarity.
Using my ratings, and a tournament simulated 100,000 times, the betting on the Exchange should look like this:
Carlos Alcaraz 3.711/4
Novak Djokovic 7.06/1
Daniil Medvedev 7.06/1
Stefanos Tsitsipas 8.415/2
Jannik Sinner 9.417/2
Holger Rune 13.012/1
Casper Ruud 23.022/1
The reality, though, is quite different. Both Alcaraz (2.829/5) and Djokovic (3.5551/20) are much shorter, whilst Medvedev (11.521/2), Tsitsipas (25.024/1) and Sinner (15.529/2) all look good value.
Tsitsipas and Sinner the best of both halves
Given the skewed draw, it makes sense to support a player in each half.
Whilst Alcaraz and Djokovic are the most likely to prevail from the top half, neither represents any value. Stefanos Tsitsipas (25.024/1), though, twice a Grand Slam finalist, including at Roland Garros in 2021, has been consistent this season and - if filtering my ratings to only include matches on clay - has little to find to overcome his two main rivals.
Meanwhile, in the bottom half of the draw, it's difficult to get excited about Medvedev. Whilst he has undoubtedly improved on clay, it's hard to forget his ignominious string of first-round exits at the French Open, and I suspect he has not improved enough to take a Major on the red stuff.
The second choice, then, is Jannik Sinner (15.529/2). Another youngster, he is constantly improving, and his form on clay of late has started to match his hard-court performances.