French Open

French Open Sunday Tips: Three plays in Paris

Popyrin French Open
Top of the pops: Alexei Popyrin is showing his quality on the biggest stages

The French Open fourth round starts on Sunday and tennis expert Gavin Mair suggests three tips for your attention...

  • Rune has chances against Musetti

  • Swiatek Bet Builder

  • Popyrin can stop Paul


The first week of the French Open is complete and we are now at the stage where in-form players will pair off against each other to see who makes the latter stages.

Arguably the tie of the round is the spectacle between Lorenzo Musetti and Holger Rune - two highly creative talents, who could produce a classic if they bring their A-game.

In the women's draw, Iga Swiatek can take a step closer to defending her crown by bettering her rival Elena Rybakina. I suggest a Betfair Bet Builder that keeps the four time champion onside.

Finally, I take a look at Alexei Popyrin's chances of ending the run of marathon man Tommy Paul, who has played back to back five setters to earn his place in round four.


Rune vs Musetti thriller

The meeting between Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti has the ingredients to be the match of the tournament. 

Both guys play attractive, versatile and creative tennis and it will be fascinating to see how they go about outfoxing the other.

There will be no surprises between the pair, who train regularly together in Monte Carlo where they both reside. 

This clay season there have been signs of each other's high potential ceiling on this surface. Musetti made the final of the Masters event in Monte Carlo, and the semis of the subsequent top tier tournaments of Rome and Madrid.

Rune hasn't been as consistent due to injury and his somewhat erratic temperament, but he did bag a title in Barcelona defeating the tour's premier clay talent Carlos Alcaraz in a convincing fashion.

In terms of tournament form, each has shown moments of quality but have had some struggles along the way. Rune was taken to five by Quentin Halys, but stormed through the final two sets, while Musetti had a very slow start against Mariano Navone before he sharpened up.

I think Rune is underrated in this match-up, and give him a stronger chance than the odds suggest. Rune has triumphed in both of their career meetings, although neither was on this surface where Musetti clearly does his best work.

Rune will not mind trading variety in the rallies, which is often how Musetti unravels and dismantles his opponents in these conditions. It won't be easy of course, but I think Rune has the higher ceiling in a sporting sense as I trust his psychology should it become a tight battle.

This could be a thriller with many twists and turns, and although logically I wouldn't put anyone off being greedy with a win and both players to win option, there is already plenty of juice in the price on Rune to win minus additional bells and whistles.

Back Holger Rune to win at 2.767/4 on the Betfair Exchange


Shaky Swiatek, but too strong for Rybakina

There was an entertaining moment during Iga Swiatek's post-match press conference that followed a hard fought straight sets win over Jaqueline Cristian. When asked about who of Elena Rybakina or Jelena Ostapenko she would rather face in this round, she tried to play it cool and down the middle. 

However, anybody who has followed Iga's career will know she struggles badly with the match-up that Jelena Ostapenko gives her. The Latvian has pummeled Swiatek in all six of their career meetings. Swiatek revealed all by giggling through her answer before stating that she does not have a very convincing poker face.

The reigning champion will be relieved that it is not Ostapenko she will face in the fourth round, but rather Rybakina. 

She will be even more relieved if she managed to watch any of their match, in what was an scrappy and messy affair in which Ostapenko had a shocking serving day and Rybakina produced only a 29% first serve in an opening set that she still won easily such was the form of her opponent.

It is not that Swiatek is disrespectful of Rybakina as a player, but clearly it is a player she knows how to beat and should be handling comfortably on this surface.

Rybakina is at her best when she is serving well and directing traffic with clean, powerful hitting. It is why her best career result was at Wimbledon where can he unplayable once she finds rhythm.

It's a different case on clay where her movement can be exposed, especially by a surface specialist such as Swiatek who will make Rybakina visit parts of the stadium she doesn't want to go.

Although Swiatek is beatable in this French Open, I would be surprised if it was Rybakina who gets the job done. Even though this has been a difficult season for Swiatek, she has still been comfortable with that match-up.

I propose a value way to back Swiatek using the Betfair Bet Builder. Take Swiatek to win at 4/91.44 and pair it with Swiatek winning under 12.5 games at 8/111.73 which pays out at a little over 19/102.90


Popyrin can down Paul

Alexei Popyrin is a hugely talented player that has done a much better job over the past 12 months of realising his potential.

In the third round of last year's Wimbledon he pushed Novak Djokovic to a close match, before beating the Serbian great at the US Open a few months later.

Popyrin is consistently performing well at the Slams, with this season's fourth round French Open effort more evidence of his improving form in the biggest events.

The Australian is not without a chance against Tommy Paul, who doesn't have the same firepower but is far more consistent and reliable which is why he is ranked in or around the top 10 of the rankings.

Paul leads the head to head three wins to one loss, but each of his wins have been in split sets. 

It is understandable that Tommy Paul is the favourite to win this clash. He is after all the higher ranked player and leads their career meetings.

However, I think there is a case to be made that Popyrin's ceiling is higher, even if he does not show that level as often.

Paul has a lot of tennis in his legs, surviving back to back physical five setters against Marton Fucsovics and Karen Khachanov who make their opponent work for every point. 

Popyrin is considerably fresher, and is yet to concede a set so far. 

The Australian changed his coaching set-up at the start of the clay season, and he has spoken about how he believes this has given him a boost in his mindset. This match-up with Paul is the acid test of his potental upgraded level. He will need to work for the win, but he has the tools to beat a guy like Paul.

At 2.546/4 Popyrin is a nice price.


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