French Open Sunday Tips: Potapova standout of four tips on day one in Paris

• Sonego out for revenge

• Potapova standout selection

• Solid picks for Free Bet promotion when you place a Bet Builder

Play is expected to start on Sunday at Roland Garros, although it might be a rain interrupted day of action.

Conditions are therefore expected to be heavy and slow and that has played an important part in assessing the first day's action. 

The headline draw on the opening day is a blockbuster rematch of the Australian Open quarterfinal between 13th seed Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Sonego. The Italian has a shot at revenge.

In the women's singles I think Anastasia Potapova is the standout pick against Linda Noskova.

Check out my thoughts on those two matches, and many more plays in today's tipsheet that you might consider adding to a Bet X Get X tennis bet builder on day one.

Sonego can gain Australian Open revenge

At the first major of the year, Ben Shelton emerged the winner of his Australian Open quarter-final against Lorenzo Sonego.

A few months later, and this is an eyecatching first round of the next Grand Slam tournament in Paris.

The players are very familiar with one another, and as it proved in Melbourne there is not a great deal to separate them.

Neither player arrives at this tournament in the best shape, with both failing to rediscover the form that allowed them to go deep Down Under, and expectations are very low that either will trouble the second week this tournament.

However, that the match is played what is anticipated to be heavy conditions there is reason to expect that this favours the Italian. 

Sonego is a more refined clay courter, having played well throughout his career on this surface having consistently progressed through a couple of rounds in Paris and having collected several tour titles on this surface.

Shelton on the other hand has struggled to adapt to such conditions and suffered some one sided losses in both the recent clay court Masters events to undermine his world ranking position of 12.

Sonego is in no great shakes himself, but does know his way around the dirt and has been reportedly practicing regularly with compatriot Jannik Sinner as the world number one returns to tour following his doping ban.

Sonego has lost repeatedly to clay court grinders during the clay swing, but the match-up dynamic with Shelton will revolve around first strikes and serving quality. On clay there is a strong case that Sonego is better suited to edging that match-up. When they met in the first round of the 2023 French Open the Italian won that day.

At 6/52.20 Sonego holds appeal.

Potapova has class to topple Noskova

In the women's draw the day one highlight is the expected competitive affair between Linda Noskova and Anastasia Potapova.

Although Noskova is the seeded player, I firmly believe that Potapova is the more convincing talent on clay courts.

Noskova is a power-hitter but can be heavy footed. Potapova is more agile and although she lacks the same natural power of her Czech opponent she still plays with aggression and importantly has versatility in her game.

The advantage of having a Plan B in her locker is likely to be advantageous for Potapova in this clash. 

Several times throughout the clay season Potapova has been able to switch up her game mid-match with moonballs and spins, which a rhythmic hitter such as Noskova is unlikely to enjoy.

Potapova has significant wins this clay season over Sofia Kenin, Qinwen Zheng and Clara Tauson. It has also taken an elite opponent to beat her. Noskova has only three wins in total, and not against anyone in the top 50.

9/101.90 on the Betfair Sportsbook for a Potapova win is generous, and is worth adding to your tennis bet builders.

Nakashima underdog value against Navone

I was surprised to see such strong market confidence in Mariano Navone ahead of his match with Brandon Nakashima.

Yes, Navone is a more natural clay courter. But he is not a hugely gifted player. His main strength is his baseline tenacity and consistency. There is no remarkable weapon in his arsenal.

Nakashima is also a player that could be considered a hard working, industrious type. His fortunes rest on his serving quality and baseline stability.

Around this time last year the two players were ranked in opposite positions - Navone was seeded and Nakashima narrowly inside the top 100. This year it is Nakashima that is seeded.

Nakashima will always give as good as he gets, and his market price of 2.56/4 is disrespectful of his chances against a player that might be a smoother mover but isn't exactly unbeatable.

Side with American Nakashima at a value price of 2.56/4 on the Betfair Exchange.

Tiafoe to take the scenic route against Safiullin

Frances Tiafoe is one of my favourite players to watch. While 99% of players in the men's game try to undo the other by edging on baseline control and serving strength, Tiafoe's approach is far more interesting and entertaining. Like Forrest Gump once famously said, "You never know what you're going to get." 

Tiafoe is a bag of tricks, but his concentration wavers throughout the flow of a match. 

There will be some needle in his match with Roman Safiullin. The Russian beat him in a tight encounter during the Asian hard court swing late last season. Although there was no animosity between the players, Tiafoe received a $120,000 fine for a rant against the umpire's handling of the contest.

Safiullin won on that occasion, and it would be no surprise if he pushed Tiafoe close here again. Neither guy is at their best on clay, but there is no great reason why one player would hold a significant advantage from the changing of conditions. Safiullin will be aggressive from the baseline, and Tiafoe will do a bit of this, bit of that.

Over the course I do expect Tiafoe finds a way - he is the significantly higher ranked player and Safiullin is not in noteworthy form.

Tiafoe to win and both players to win a set at 11/82.38 makes sense to me.

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If you are looking for options then this next selection of matches might be worth considering to throw into your picks.

Teichmann's forehand advantage

Jil Teichmann is a reasonable 8/111.73 shot to beat qualifier Lucrezia Stefanini. The Swiss was ranked as high as 21 in the world a couple of years ago, and after a couple of seasons where injuries and a loss of form have impacted her career, she has entered this year's draw on ranking merit.

Her opponent Stefanini has limited talent relative to Teichmann, and the Swiss should have a huge advantage in the forehand to forehand battles. Teichmann has power and the ability to open up the court with that shot, whilst Stefanini is vulnerable on that wing.

Back buoyant Korpatsch

Tamara Korpatsch is enjoying a strong spell of form, and is not without a chance of upsetting Sorana Cirstea.

Korpatsch is enjoying an eight match win streak, bagging a clay court title in Trnava before qualifying for the main draw against the reputable Rebeka Masarova. Her success in Slovakia, was a first tournament victory since 2023 and has enabled her to climb back into the top 150 of the world rankings. She is also defending second round points from last year.

Sorana Cirstea is attempting a comeback after an injury hit 2024. The Romanian is now ranked 164, and her efforts to string match wins together has been inconsistent. She was not fit enough to play singles since an injury after Madrid last month.

Even in the best of times the French Open has not been a happy hunting ground for Cirstea who has exited the tournament at the first round of asking in the last two seasons.

At 5/42.25 there is reason to side with the buoyant Korpatsch.

Machac rollercoaster expected

Tomas Machac is another player worth watching. He's an explosive baseline hitter, and is continuingly rising up the rankings.

The Czech has firepower to beat anyone on the tour, but his aggressive approach leads to streaky results. 

Machac has been drawn against top 50 ranked Frenchman Quentin Halys, who should be able to hang with his opponent at least for spells in this match. Halys is a big server, and that reliability should allow him to remain competitive on the scoreboard.

Except on his occasionally perfect days, you can typically expect dips in Machac's level. Over the course of five sets Halys has the ability in front of his home crowd to make live difficult, and although the match will largely be on the Machac racket it likely won't be straightforward.

Consider backing Machac and both players to win a set at 5/42.25

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