French Open Semi Final Tips: How to back Alcaraz at 7/5 to beat Sinner

• New names at the top of the sport

• Alcaraz has more in his locker on clay

• 9/110.00 outright pick Zverev has greater upside

As men's tennis cycles out of the era of big four dominance there is a freshness and an openness about today's semi-finals.

Without Rafa Nadal or Novak Djokovic, the business end of the tournament has a new look and a first time French Open champion will be crowned on Sunday.

Here is how I think the two matches will go.

The new big two

At the top of the pack in this new generation is Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. These two are the most obvious candidates to share most of the major honours in the coming years.

Unsurprisingly they are also the two at the forefront of the outright market, with Alcaraz marginally favoured to become champion this weekend.

I think the market fairly reflects the greater potential of Alcaraz on this surface. The Spaniard's creative and dynamic playing style is at its most impactful on the dirt and I fully expect he will end his career with multiple French Open titles.

There is very little to pick between this duo, with Alcaraz narrowly leading the head to head by five wins to four. They've split their last four meetings evenly, Alcaraz winning their only encounter this season on the hard courts of Indian Wells.

Despite that being a hard court it is a decent form guide for what could happen here. Indian Wells tends to have unique playing conditions that favour players who are able to adapt a clay court based game onto the hard surface. The champions roll of honour reflects that.

Both these guys are capable of hurting the other. On clay and over five sets however I feel there is likely to be an advantage for Alcaraz. He can more easily mix up his strategy and play with variety, whilst there is a perception that he is more physically durable than his Italian opponent over the distance.

I raised my eyebrows when I saw the 1/21.50 quoted on an Alcaraz victory in this match. That is disrespectful of Sinner's chances. But I would make Alcaraz the favourite.

There is a value position if you are to bet before the match and that is by siding with Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set at 7/52.40

Outright hopes over?

Our 9/110.00 outright pick Alex Zverev attempts to continue his path through the draw when he takes on Casper Ruud in the other semi-final.

The German is favoured by the market to edge this match at 7/101.70. I do tend to agree that Zverev should be in that position.

The performances of neither Ruud nor Zverev have been fully impressive throughout this tournament with both mixing solid moments with scrappier play. If either is to go all the way they will need to bring their A-game rather than what they've shown so far.

They met in the semi-final last season and Ruud won easily against an injured Zverev. I therefore don't put any value in that head to head. There is also no great insight that can be gleamed from their other head to head meetings due to a combination of surface and form.

Ruud has had a harder time holding serve than Zverev throughout this tournament, winning 79% of his service games compared to the German's 84%, so there is a reasonable basis for Zverev's favouritism.

The danger for Zverev is that he becomes too passive. He has attacking tools but rarely plays on the front foot, opting to wear down his opponent by employing steadiness. Whilst it is not at all easy on the eye it is effective. It's a numbers game for Zverev.

Ruud has the ability to take full advantage of any Zverev negativity. The Norwegian holds the greatest rally winning weapon on court with his forehand. That's why he reached the 2022 and 2023 French Open finals.

I do, however, think that, if Zverev can bring his better level to court, he is the more likely winner. I find no reason to enter the market again whilst carrying this outright position. Here's hoping our 9/110.00 pick gets through.

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