French Open Quarter-final Tips: Zheng and Musetti hold value

• Qinwen's clay class

• Tiafoe can compete

• Defending champions should win

Zheng can repeat Rome win

Qinwen Zheng defeated Aryna Sabalenka for the first time in eight attempts during her run to the semi-finals in Rome.

It was a significant victory for the Olympic champion, who had until then struggled to get to grips with the powerful and consistent world number one.

The surface made a huge difference in the match-up dynamic. It was their only meeting played on a clay court, with all others having occured on a hard court where Sabalenka's superiority above Zheng - and most others on tour - is well established.

Zheng's backhand can break down when attacked with pace and variety, which Sabalenka is fully able to exploit on harder and faster tracks.

Analysing how she was able to turn the tables on Sabalenka in Rome, Zheng stated it was easier for her to make the points longer and she felt less need than her opponent to take attacking risks in the rallies.

Conditions in Paris have been slow and heavy for the majority of the tournament so far, and Zheng will believe that she can once again defeat Sabalenka.

Sabalenka should be fresher for this battle than she was in Rome, as she had been on a nine match winning run since the start of the Madrid tournament. It is fair to imagine that Sabalenka will be improved from the Rome meeting.

However, I still think Zheng looks value to get the win. The Chinese player has gone all the way in these conditions, winning the Olympic gold medal at last summer's Paris Olympics.

Sabalenka by contrast has never won the tournament in Rome, nor got to the final of Roland Garros. Despite her confident talk, the conditions clearly have an impact on Sabalenka's performance levels.

There is no doubting it will be difficult, but Zheng has much more of a chance than the odds indicate. At [3.5] on the Betfair Exchange, Zheng is the pick.

Tiafoe can test Musetti

Frances Tiafoe is having an exceptional tournament. The American has typically dialled it in when he arrives on the clay courts of Roland Garros, yet this time around he has flourished reaching a first French Open quarter-final and doing so without dropping a set.

The tennis played by Tiafoe has been impressive. He has used his range of variety to outcraft each opponent, and it is clear his game is in a good place right now.

However, there is a significant step up in quality in the final eight where he is drawn to face Lorenzo Musetti.

The Italian has continued this season's excellent clay form, where prior to Paris he made the final of Monte Carlo and semi-final in both Rome and Madrid. He should be considered a top four player on this surface.

I thought Musetti could have his hands full in the fourth round against Holger Rune. And whilst that was true for the first two sets, Musetti raised his level to outplay the talented Dane in the third and fourth sets. 

It was a brilliant performance, where Musetti went through the gears to outfox a very dangerous opponent.

As well as Tiafoe is playing, I think Musetti will have too much defensive quality and will be the more stable player over five sets.

The American is playing well enough to take a set, but Musetti's proven clay court expertise will win the day.

Use the Betfair Bet Builder option to combine a Musetti victory at 2/91.22 with over 33.5 total games at 4/61.67 which factors in a competitive showing from Tiafoe. This pays out at over 11/102.11.

Defending champions to survive

Iga Swiatek was given an almighty scare in the previous round by Elena Rybakina, who built up a set and break lead before the reigning champion was able to turn things around.

Rybakina was swatting Swiatek off the court, and the Polish player's attempts at fighting fire with fire were unsuccessful.

Swiatek has more strings to her bow than her power hitting, and although her weapons started to work better as the match transpired, this was won with hustling and grinding past Rybakina.

Although on paper Swiatek should have little trouble with quarter-final opponent Elina Svitolina, it has the potential to be tricky. Swiatek has been an erratic performer all season, and she won't want to get into a dogfight with Svitolina who was able to turn around a set and 1/4 deficit to grind down 2024 finalist Jasmine Paolini.

Svitolina was able to end Swiatek's Wimbledon campaign two season's ago in a typically gritty fashion, so the danger signs are there if Iga isn't firing on all cylinders.

If Swiatek brings her A-game she wins comfortably. If she doesn't, anything could happen.

Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz will probably prove too strong for Tommy Paul. The American has done well to win through to the final eight, but Alcaraz should enjoy this match-up and end Paul's run.

Paul is at his best when providing resistance with his fitness and baseline movement to encourage errors from loose hitting attacking players.

Alcaraz has so many options at his disposal that unless Paul has magically developed the ability to read minds, Carlitos will have his number.

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