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Stan the Man still has spark
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Osaka in decent form
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It is too early for summer in Paris, as rain and cloud cast over the courts of Roland Garros.
Conditions are particularly important when assessing clay court tennis, as some players enjoy grinding it out on a heavy pitch whilst others would prefer to strike through a speedier and drier court.
One match where I think that dynamic is particularly important is the meeting of Stan Wawrinka and Jacob Fearnley. The Swiss veteran is a master on a clay court, and could enjoy himself against a player that is still learning the quirks of playing on the dirt.
Another player who has been enjoying themselves on clay this season is Naomi Osaka, and although she has a tough assignment against Paula Badosa, the four time major winner will be hoping to show her recent impressive form in this match.
Veteran Wawrinka value to have hot start
It is 10 years since Stan Wawrinka lifted the French Open title, a huge achievement in the era when Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer routinely split the majors between them.
Tournament organisers have marked the occasion by awarding Stan a wild card for this edition. The Swiss is going strong at 40 years of age, and remains competitive despite an understandable decline in his results.
Wawrinka can still play good tennis, but he does struggle to maintain a consistent level and suffers from physical dips over the duration of matches. The best of five set format is not his friend.
Opponent Jacob Fearnley is settling into tour life impressively, ranked at 55 in the world after making the leap from US college tennis. The Edinburgh man is raw in experience stating during the clay tournament at Barcelona that it was only his third competitive match ever on the surface.
Fearnley picked up some wins at some of the faster clay events, but there have been some less than stellar showings along the way too.
Conditions in Paris are likely to be heavy. A wily clay expert such as Wawrinka is going to make Fearnley visit parts of the court he has never seen before, and I think Stan will exploit the Brit's lack of experience at least for a while.
Stan is not a bad bet to have a quick start, yet is priced at odds against to do so. It is possible that he will struggle to sustain that level over five sets hence Fearnley's favouritism in the match.
I like Wawrinka to start fast, and 6/52.20 is a good price for him to win set one.
Back Stan Wawrinka to win set one vs Jacob Fearnley
Osaka ready for Badosa battle
You could argue that a meeting between Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa would be a more fitting Grand Slam quarter-final than a first round clash.
However, the struggle of the Japanese star to consistently rediscover her previous best level has limited her ascent back up the rankings.
Nevertheless, Osaka is trending in the right direction. Expectations are understandably low for Osaka on a clay court, where her powerful tennis is less impactful than on the hard courts where she initially built her reputation, but she has had a positive campaign on the dirt.
Osaka is putting in the hard yards to improve her results, dropping down to the challenger circuit to win a title in Saint Malo before winning three consecutive matches at the Rome 1000 event.
She has adapted her game to clay, and should arrive in Paris with confidence.
This is a good time to be playing Paula Badosa. The Spaniard is suffering from a chronic back pain issue, and she is not able to compete every week on the tour.
Badosa returned to competition last week in Strasbourg and was ousted in three sets by Ludmila Samsonova. She is lacking in matches, and has not built up the body of form that Osaka has.
Badosa stated prior to the draw being made that her expectations are low and limited to playing one good French Open match, or three at best. The draw has certainly not been kind - Osaka is the unseeded player nobody wants to be paired with.
Although Badosa is a handy clay court player, there is enough evidence that Osaka is in good form and her 1.814/5 price on the Betfair Exchange is appealing.
Back Naomi Osaka to win vs Paula Badosa
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If you are looking for options then this next selection of matches might be worth considering to throw into your picks.
Cocciaretto's clay credentials underrated
Italy's Elisabetta Cocciaretto is not enjoying her most fruitful 2025 campaign, suffering seven first round losses on her tour card to date.
Cocciaretto struggles to stay fit, and it is not uncommon that she is playing through an injury. The good news is that typically she saves her best for big occasions and has reached at least the third round on her past two visits to Roland Garros.
Taylor Townsend is not a player that has fared well in Paris, failing to make it beyond the first round since 2018, and even for this tournament only entering the main draw as a lucky loser having been defeated in the final round of qualifying.
The American remarked on social media that this result was a success, as very recently she spent time off tour due to concussion.
Although the results have not been the best for Cocciaretto, there is at least evidence that she can play well on this surface and particularly at this tournament.
I think the 11/102.11 on a Cocciaretto win is potentially a spot of value.
Bronzetti can trouble Alexandrova
Another Italian who likely has a better chance than the odds suggest is Lucia Bronzetti, who is tasked with defeating perennial seed Ekaterina Alexandrova.
The top 20 Russian rarely makes good use of her seeding, losing more matches than she's won at Grand Slam level over the course of her career. Alexandrova lost here in round one last year, and she is unlikely to enjoy the heavy conditions this time around either.
Alexandrova likes it fast. She plays a flat, hard hitting baseline game and isn't known for her rally endurance.
Bronzetti plays with a more controlled rallying style, applying plenty of spin to the ball, which will almost certainly get Alexandrova moving.
It is not been a good season either for Bronzetti but she is a capable player that has bagged a title on this surface in each of the two previous seasons.
Alexandrova is never a player to back at low prices, and the 11/43.75 Bronzetti is worthy of consideration.
Gasquet can have one last hurrah
Richard Gasquet is playing his final tournament at this year's French Open. It is guaranteed to be an emotional occasion as Gasquet is revered in his homeland, and the ceremony sending him into retirement will certainly be a spectacle.
Gasquet has looked on his last legs for a while now, but he might have at least one good set in him. Terence Atmane is a big serving lefty, but he's not made much of an impact on tour and in his heyday it is a player Gasquet would've had little trouble with.
These days it feels unlikely that Gasquet can go the distance, and it is expected that Atmane will win this match. However, the occasion is a factor and Gasquet nabbing a set would not be a surprise. Atmane to win and both players to win a set is a reasonable 6/42.50.
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