Saturday's action - favourites dominate
On a day where favourites generally got the job done without too much fuss, Daniil Medvedev eased into round four to give us a winner as he defeated Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets. The only favourite who really struggled was Casper Ruud, who needed five sets to fight back and get the better of Lorenzo Sonego.
Unfortunately for those who are looking for big-priced winners today, more of the same looks pretty likely. All four of the fourth round matches feature overwhelming pre-match favourites, and it's tough to really have any kind of confidence in any of the underdogs today - every single favourite is priced at 1.201/5 or below, and in most cases, sub 1.101/10.
Nadal the biggest-priced favourite today
The biggest-priced favourite is Rafa Nadal against Felix Auger-Aliassime, priced up at 1.162/13.
The King of Clay really should continue his run in the tournament so far, as he aims to record a 14th French Open title.
Despite slightly unconvincing in the clay Masters events as warm-up to this tournament, and potential injury issues, Nadal really should get the job done today against the Canadian. On clay in the last 12 months, Nadal has a decent edge on service points won, and as to be expected, a huge edge on return points won as well. My model has the Spaniard very similarly priced to the market line today.
Djokovic likely to exploit Schwartzman's serve
Nadal's great rival, Novak Djokovic, faces the Argentine, Diego Schwartzman, today and the world number one is shorter-priced than Nadal at 1.091/11. Djokovic has never lost to Schwartzman, winning all six previous encounters, and is 15-3 in sets, plus 7-0 in sets in their matches from 2020 onwards.
In those more recent clashes, Schwartzman's major issue is that his serve hasn't been a match for Djokovic's return game. 53% of service points won is an obvious problem, and it simply won't get the job done against Djokovic - this gives some great insight into what Schwartzman needs to improve in order to cause a shock today.
Tough to see an upset from Khachanov
Similarly priced to the Serb is the Spanish phenomenon, Carlos Alcaraz, and again, the favourite is anticipated to get the job done against Karen Khachanov. Alcaraz will be very grateful for a straight-set win over Sebastian Korda on Friday, after a five-setter which he almost lost against Albert Ramos, and he's now 13 unbeaten this season on clay.
Khachanov's form this season on the surface has been pretty mixed, with his wins mostly in matches he'd be expected to win, and defeats against a mixed bag of opposition, but taking sets off the likes of Djokovic and Tsitsipas. Ultimately though, Alcaraz simply has far better numbers on clay, and is seemingly improving week after week, so again it is tricky to contemplate an upset.
Zverev should ease past qualifier Miralles
Finally, this is also the case for the qualifier, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, against Alexander Zverev. The Spaniard has never broken into the top 100 by the age of 25, and the third seed is appropriately priced at 1.081/12.
Zverev should dominate - he's won 8% more service points on clay in the last 12 months - and that service consistency should be more than enough to record a fairly straightforward victory.
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