-
Gigante can keep Shelton honest
-
Tiafoe to upset odds
-
Rybakina justified favourite
Take advantage of Betfair's generous offer to get a completely free bet when you place a Bet Builder on the French Open. If you are looking for options then this selection of matches might be worth considering to throw into your picks.
On day five I am looking at matches where there is a case for a reasonable favourite, but they might need to take the scenic route to get over the line.
Ben Shelton has low expectations for this Grand Slam but his opportunity to make the second week thanks to a favourable draw. The hyper aggressive American is prone to big form swings, and although I expect he will win, it will be a hard fought win over Matteo Gigante who is having a fairytale run.
At least one American will make the next round as Frances Tiafoe faces off against Sebastian Korda. These two typically play each other very closely, but I have confidence in Big Foe getting the job done.
Finally, I think Elena Rybakina will prove too steady for the sport's most Jekyll and Hyde player Jelena Ostapenko.
Shelton to topple Gigante
On the opening day's play I was keen to oppose Ben Shelton against attacking baseliner Lorenzo Sonego.
The Italian player had the match at his mercy leading two sets to one, but Shelton started swinging, producing ultra aggressive shotmaking and great courage to decide the result on his terms.
It was an impressive demonstration of Shelton's game, which leans heavily on riding risk and coming out on top. His confident personality is taking him places, and allows him to overcome the scrappy elements of his game.
The draw has worked out kindly for the American, as he was handed a walkover in round two and has avoided former French Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in round three.
Matteo Gigante upset Tsitsipas, using impressive variety to exploit the nerves and deep court positioning of the Greek. It is a fairytale run for the Roman clay courter, who is making a mockery of his current 167 ranking, by coming through qualifying and emerging to the third round of the tournament proper.
Ultimately, Shelton should prove a step too far. Whilst Tsitsipas was tentative and hoped for Gigante to start missing there will be none of that from Shelton. The left hander will not let Gigante to dictate, and will be aiming to decide points on his terms for better or worse.
Shelton typically plays in energetic bursts, raising his return game at opportune moments while reliably holding on to his serve. It is natural that this approach is more difficult to implement on the more physically demanding clay surface, so there is a higher likelihood that there will be dips in his level.
That is why I am opting for the bet builder option that selects Shelton as the winner 4/71.57, and requires him to net over 20.5 games to get the win 5/61.84, which means he is unlikely to win this in straight sets against an in-form underdog.
This bet builder pays out at around 5/42.25
Back Ben Shelton to win the match and over 20.5 games
Tiafoe has turned up
I have been downbeat on the chances of Frances Tiafoe at this tournament, who I had expected to struggle through his first few rounds. After all, that is what the evidence of his career has shown.
However, Tiafoe has been very sharp in these first few rounds, cruising past both Pablo Carreno Busta and Roman Safiullin without breaking a sweat.
Despite that Big Foe is priced as an underdog for his third round clash with compatriot Sebastian Korda. The pair are tied at three wins apiece in their head to head, and each has spoken about their respect for the other and how they expect their matches to be settled by fine margins.
Korda has an excellent forehand and a reliable serve, whilst Tiafoe tends to mix up his attacking game as much as possible. Of the two, it is Tiafoe who has the higher ceiling when he is showing form of which there is little doubt after his first two matches.
I like Tiafoe's chances in this one, but finally we might see him concede at least a set to his close rival. That is why I am taking Tiafoe to win 1/12.00 and pairing it with Tiafoe to win over 19.5 games 8/111.73.
Back Frances to win the match and over 19.5 games
In-form Rybakina to down former champion
Elena Rybakina is on a tear, having won her first title of the season last week in Strasbourg.
The Kazakhstani needed that win to restore confidence in her game. Rybakina is just about the biggest server on tour, and compliments that with no-nonsense powerful groundstrokes.
When Rybakina plays with a clear head, and has confidence in the fundamental aspects of her game it is very difficult to keep up with her. At its best her game is effortless and repeatable.
Opponent Jelena Ostapenko is the sport's ultimate wildcard. While Rybakina's approach is controlled and measured, Ostapenko is all or nothing. The Latvian sees-ball-hits-ball, and is capable of beating anyone with that approach.
So far this tournament Ostapenko has blown extremely hot and cold. From one set to the next she is either unplayable or the easiest opponent on tour. The opposition only gets harder from here, and Rybakina is a player that can decide enough points on her own to not require a set of assistance from Ostapenko.
I expect Rybakina's steadiness both mentally and in terms of playing style gives her the edge in this match-up. However, the explosiveness of Ostapenko can grab a set.
On the bet builder I am taking Elena Rybakina to win 1/21.50 and pairing that with the Kazakhstani winning over 12.5 games to get the job done at 1/12.00.
The bet builder pays out at just over 5/42.25 on that outcome.
Back Elena Rybakina to win the match and over 12.5 games
Get daily tips throughout the French Open on Betting.Betfair