French Open

French Open Women's Final: Swiatek to ruin Paolini's big day out

Paolini celebrating
Incredible Paolini: The Italian has had the best week of her career at the French Open but it won't have a happy ending

As predicted from the outset it seems inevitable that Iga Swiatek will leave Paris with her fourth French Open title. Tennis tipster Gavin Mair explains how to back her in the final.

  • Swiatek as short as 1/201.05 to win

  • Paolini having a career highlight week

  • Our previewer shows how to get Iga onside at a backable price

It will take an injury or some other misfortune for Iga Swiatek not to leave Paris with her fourth French Open crown.

Jasmine Paolini will have some great stories to tell the grandkids about her famous fortnight in Paris. Not only has she made the final in singles, but she has reached the doubles one too alongside her partner Sara Errani.

Unfortunately, Saturday's singles final will not have a happy ending, for which Swiatek has been installed as 1/201.05 favourite.

Barriers toppled

From the start of the tournament it seemed that were only a handful of opponents with any realistic opportunity to introduce some sort of barrier on the Swiatek path to glory - Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff.

It was, however, a pleasant surprise to watch Naomi Osaka reannounce herself as a contender. She almost stunned Swiatek in round two, holding match point, yet Swiatek survived. But Osaka has shot a warning that she will compete for the remaining major honours this season.

Game, set, mismatch

Unfortunately for Jasmine Paolini it is difficult to imagine her going toe-to-toe with Swiatek. In their two previous matches the Italian has scored only three games in each fixture. A nine game margin of victory for Swiatek .

Swiatek plays with an aggression and intensity in her game that steamrolls opponents on this surface. She impacts the ball with so much spin and power that you have to counter it with significant weaponry of your own, accompanied by an exceptional athleticism.

Paolini's approach is to rush her opponents by taking the ball early. This was highly effective against Rybakina who for all her strength struggles with her defensive movement. Swiatek has no such exploitable weakness.

Swiatek does not mind the ball that Paolini will give her and will find ample opportunity to dictate the play.

It is an incredible achievement for Paolini to reach this final. However, I can't see her enjoying her Saturday afternoon.

Swiatek has started her last three Grand Slam finals quickly, racing out to an unconquerable lead. She dropped only two games to Karolina Muchova in last year's final, two games to Ons Jabeur in the 2022 US Open final and one versus Coco Gauff in the 2022 French Open final.

The price for Iga to blast Paolini away early is appealing. The best way to get that onside is by backing Swiatek -3.5 games in set one at 5/61.84 - our bet will be settled as a winner if Swiatek takes the first set by any of the following scorelines - 6-0, 6-1, 6-2.

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