French Open Analysis: Ruud could test Nadal's legs if conditions are slow

After a dramatic men's semi finals day at the 2022 French Open the final is set and Rafael Nadal will go for an incredible 14th title on Sunday against first-time major finalist Casper Ruud.

Looking back at the finals that Nadal has played here you could be forgiven for thinking that it's a foregone conclusion that Nadal win will win: 13-0 win/loss in French Open finals and only seven sets dropped in those finals.

But, at 36-years-old, and after a few tough matches to get to this final and carrying a foot injury, I wonder how much he's got left in those legs?

Rafa's level this French Open has proven virtually impossible to call, with some very average performances punctuated by one superb one against Novak Djokovic, and I can't help feeling that he got lucky on a dramatic day in Paris on Friday.

Nadal was struggling in damp conditions and under a closed roof against Alexander Zverev, who could have been two sets up on Nadal when he reached for a forehand out wide, and fell, screaming in agony.

Zverev looks to have damaged ankle ligaments in what was a really painful-looking fall and Nadal can count himself fortunate because Zverev may well have gone on to either win the match or at least make it into a really long battle.

The German led the opening set 4-2 and went on to lead the tie break 6-2 before failing to see it out and then he broke Nadal four times in set two, led that set 5-3 before ending up in the tie break that was to be his last action on a tennis court for some time.

That wasn't the end of the drama either, as later on in Ruud's semi final victory over Marin Cilic, an activist stormed onto Chatrier and tied herself to the net before the bumbling security guards took her away.

I feel that Ruud's chances in this match depend largely on three factors: his own nerves, the weather, and Nadal's fitness

Hopefully the drama on Sunday will be limited to the tennis and I feel that Ruud's chances in this match depend largely on three factors: his own nerves, the weather, and Nadal's fitness.

It looks very much as if it's going to be another thundery day in Paris, so they may well play under the closed roof again, but even if it's opened, the rain in recent days will mean it's going to play on the slow side.

We saw Nadal struggle against Zverev in unsuitable conditions and it might be the case that Ruud has the advantage if it comes down to a long battle on slow clay.

He's over 12 years Nadal's junior and even though Nadal 'only' played three hours against Zverev on Friday it was still a tough workout and had Zverev not got injured it may have gone on for a very long time.

If we look at the stats for this French Open there's only two percent in it in terms of their combined service points won/return points won totals, but Nadal has created far more break point chances (almost one every return game compared to 0.66 per game for Ruud).

As we've been all tournament we're guessing as to Nadal's fitness, but if we assume he's fit for duty he's the clear favourite with a huge advantage in terms of experience of playing title matches on this Chatrier court.

If we assume Nadal's fit for duty he's the clear favourite with a huge advantage in terms of experience of playing title matches on this Chatrier court

Ruud is bound to be nervous and he did start slowly in the semi final against Cilic and really only got back into it when Cilic's level dropped, but credit Ruud for sticking it out and turning that match around.

He's never faced Nadal in his career so far, but surely Rafa will be targeting the weaker backhand side of Ruud regularly with that leftie forehand, but I'm not sure he'll be able to get as much out of it as usual in slower, damper conditions.

This is another one of those difficult week two at the French Open matches, with all sorts of factors at play, and while Nadal is the strong favourite at 1.21/5 he's not really backable at short prices at the moment due to his fluctuating level.

This is probably one for in-play, but pre-match I'll take half a point on Nadal to win it 3-1 at 3.8014/5 in what could be a tougher match than most expect due to the conditions.