French Open Analysis: Nadal can cover the handicap against Auger-Aliassime

The second week of the French Open starts on Sunday and as this is usually a really poor week for backing underdogs in, this week I'll be looking closely at certain match-ups to see if we can find some value in any markets.

Just to recap the stats of round four of the men's singles, every R4 favourite won in 2021 and on average over the last nine years a huge 86% of the betting favourites have won in this round.

Not since Robin Soderling beat Rafa Nadal as a 28.027/1 chance in 2009 have more than two players priced up as underdogs won in this fourth round of the French Open, so it's the time when the big players tend to step up their games.

On average over the last nine years a huge 86% of the betting favourites have won in this round

One stat that stands out about round four is that fewer tie breaks tend to occur in this round - only 33% of the matches in the last nine years have featured a tie break, compared to the tournament average of 41%.

Of the round four matches scheduled for Sunday, all four favourites are really short in price - so short that if you backed all four in a multiple you'd still only get odds of around 1.374/11.

So, can any of the four get beaten?

It's unlikely and looking at Novak Djokovic's record in round four matches in majors, he's an incredible 49-3 win/loss in completed matches, with his last defeat (in a completed match) coming against Hyeon Chung at the 2018 Australian Open.

Prior to that, you'd have to go all the way back to 2007 when Roger Federer beat Djokovic at the Australian Open when Djokovic was 14th seed.

He's never lost in this round of the French Open (14-0 win/loss) and 10 of those 14 wins have come in straight sets.

Only once has he been taken to five sets (against Andreas Seppi in 2012) and he's only dropped one set in this round of the French Open since 2014.

Against Schwartzman, in their three-match career series on clay (3-0 to Djokovic) Djokovic has dropped sets in two of those matches: here at the French in 2017 and in the Rome semi final of 2019.

But the stats of those three meetings show that Schwartzman was overperforming by winning a set.

Djokovic has won 67% of his service points and 45% of his return points (112 total) while Schwartzman has won 56% of his service points and 33% of his return points (89 total) so the Argentine has had big trouble holding serve and isn't doing enough on return.

As for current form, well, Diego has been tough to read this season, with some good play combined with some poor stuff, most recently in Rome when (after a tough match in round one) he was beaten as a 1.162/13 chance by lucky loser Marcos Giron.

So far this tournament he's beaten Jaume Munar from two sets down and then defeated what may well have been an injured Grigor Dimitrov, so I'm not seeing anything that suggests an upset is likely here.

Overall, Schwartzman is 2-13 win/loss on clay versus top-five ranked opponents in his career and if I were betting in this I'd take Djokovic to win 3-0 at 1.674/6.

Nadal likely to be too strong for Auger-Aliassime

The only time that Rafael Nadal has lost a French Open fourth round match was famously against Soderling in 2009 in a 15-1 win/loss record in which Rafa has won in straight sets in 10 of the following 11 years.

The only time since 2009 that he's dropped a set was against Jack Sock in 2015 and since that Soderling shock, Nadal has covered today's handicap line of -7.5 games every single time he's played a fourth round match at the French Open since (11 times).

Even when dropping a set against Sock he still covered -7.5 and so on that basis alone 2.01/1 on him doing it again looks fair value, but what about the match up this time?

He's taking on Felix Auger-Aliassime, who of course is coached by Nadal's uncle, so that may make this a little spicy, but Toni Nadal can't do a lot to help his charge here I feel, with FAA likely to be nervous ahead of this match.

Botic van De Zandschulp admitted to being nervous against Rafa in Friday's match and the King of Clay will surely pounce on any nerves from Auger-Aliassime on Sunday in his first time in week two of the French Open.

He played well against Filip Krajinovic, with the serve really working for him, but this is another level and I'm not sure Felix is up to testing Nadal and particularly in a day match, where Rafa enjoys conditions the most.

Some people thought that Jannik Sinner would test Nadal in this round last year, but once Nadal had been given a chance by Sinner (who failed to serve out set one) he ran away with it and Nadal is an even bigger price today than he was against Sinner.

This is another level and I'm not sure Felix is up to testing Nadal and particularly in a day match, where Rafa enjoys conditions the most

Rafa was priced up at 1.101/10 then and he's 1.141/7 now, which is the biggest price he's ever been for any French Open round four match in his career and some of that must be down to the ongoing foot injury.

Even with that injury, Nadal has still broken serve 40% of the time on clay this past 12 months, and created 0.84 break chances per game, converting on 48% of them.

That's pretty much in line with his stats over his last 50 main level clay matches, so there hasn't been a drop off in that regard. The question marks are mainly about that foot issue.

It doesn't seem to be bothering him so far and the -7.5 games on Nadal at 2.01/1 looks a reasonable bet here.

Zverev and Alcaraz likely to progress

Of the other two matches, no qualifier has made the quarter finals of the men's singles at the French Open this century and it's hard to see Bernabe Zapata Miralles doing it against Alexander Zverev.

BZM had a tough five setter on Friday and he's sure to be nervous, which will help Zverev, and unless Zverev has one of his awful days it's hard to make a case for the Spanish qualifier.

No qualifier has made the quarter finals of the men's singles at the French Open this century

Finally, Karen Khachanov would probably have hoped for a day match against Carlos Alcaraz, but he's got the graveyard shift instead and only an absolute peak form Khachanov would stand a decent chance here.

Like Zverev, Khachanov's level is tough to predict and I think he needs quicker conditions than this to try and power his way past Alcaraz.

So, minimum stakes in this toughest of weeks for value seekers and the best option for me on Sunday is the 2.01/1 about Nadal winning -7.5 games for half a point.