French Open Daily Double: Inexperienced Brooksby short against Cuevas

Sean Calvert
21 May 2022

Cuevas is a tempting price to beat the inexperienced Brooksby

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The 2022 French Open begins on Sunday and in the early rounds of this year's tournament Sean Calvert will be providing a 'daily double' of value bets, starting with Sunday's men's matches...

"Brooksby has only played six main level matches on clay and won just two..."

I've been given a big challenge this fortnight at the French Open and that's to try and find two wagers each day that bettors can combine in a 'daily double' and before I begin with Sunday's matches, let's have a look at some numbers.

As many punters will know, Grand Slams usually run to form, with the longer best-of-five set format generally meaning that the better player usually wins and this is borne out in the stats.

In the last nine years of the men's singles an average of just 21% of the underdogs has won, making it the worst of all tournaments on the calendar in that regard and clearly a tough two weeks for underdog backers.

If you'd backed every underdog in the last six editions of the men's singles, you'd be over £2,000 down to a £10 stake.

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In round one alone in the last nine years, an average of 23% of the underdogs have won and that's been boosted by the last two editions (one of which was held in September/October) averaging 33% underdog winners in round one.

Average service holds here come out at 75% over the last six years and 41% of the matches have featured at least one tie break.

The other thing that we need to be aware of on any given day when betting on the French Open (or any outdoor clay event) is the weather and on Sunday it's set to be cloudy after showers in the early morning, so conditions shouldn't be quick.

In the French Open it's proven a decent tactic over the years to back underdogs not necessarily to win the match, but to win a set or two and on Sunday, I like the idea of backing against a few favourites to win in straight sets.

Auger-Aliassime and Zverev no certs for 3-0 wins

Felix Auger-Aliassime has lost in round one on his only two visits to the French Open (to Andreas Seppi, who was a 9.28 chance and to Yoshihito Nishioka who was 4.86 and the Canadian has only ever won one set at this tournament.

So, he'll be nervous on the big Philippe Chatrier Court on Sunday against qualifier Juan Pablo Varillas.

Varillas edged a near-three-hour clash with Nicolas Jarry to qualify and he might fancy his chances of at least making this match hard work for FAA, but the Peruvian's record at main level isn't inspiring and he's never played the main draw of the French Open before, let alone on Chatrier.

Definite possibility of Varillas +2.5 sets here, but it's too short for me at 1.574/7.

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Given how much the level of Alexander Zverev varies and how often he's become embroiled in needlessly long four and five set matches early in majors (14 of his 24 matches at the French Open have been either four or five sets) he may well do so again against qualifier Sebastian Ofner.

But Ofner's big serve may not fare so well on clay that's had a fair bit of rain lately and I prefer the clay court nous of Pablo Cuevas to be at least competitive against the inexperienced (on this surface) Jenson Brooksby.

Cuevas is into the veteran stage of his career now and isn't the player he was, but he'll be up for this in what might be his last French Open and it could well be the case that he's still a better clay courter than Brooksby at this stage of the American's career.

Brooksby has only played six main level matches on clay and won just two (one against an injured David Goffin and the other versus a nervous Flavio Cobolli in Rome) so against a man who's played 287 main level matches on clay (and won 59% of them) this looks a tricky challenge for Brooksby.

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The +1.5 sets on Cuevas at 1.84/5 is the first leg of Sunday's double, with the second being to take Aljaz Bedene to win the opening set against Christopher O'Connell at a tempting 2.757/4.

Bedene has had all sort of injury and illness issues in recent times, hence his price today against an opponent with a very limited record at main level on clay (he's 1-3 win/loss), but 2.757/4 about him winning set one here looks value.

Assuming that Bedene's not picked up yet another injury in that Kwon match I can't see how he should be as big as 2.757/4 to win set one against O'Connell

Bedene served for a straight sets win over Soonwoo Kwon in Lyon on Monday, but having failed to serve it out something went wrong against physically and he was unable to do much in set three, but he was a 3.23 chance to beat Kwon and should have done.

Assuming that he's not picked up yet another injury in that Kwon match I can't see how he should be as big as 2.757/4 to win set one against O'Connell, whose price has a whiff of recency bias about it, having recently won a Challenger on clay and beaten Albert Ramos in Geneva.

As I mentioned last week, Ramos has a weak record in pre-major weeks and was barely favourite for that match, so if we take out that Ramos win O'Connell's other main level matches on clay have been losses to Reilly Opelka, Tommy Paul, and Andrej Martin.

So, Bedene to win the opening set and Cuevas on the handicap will be Sunday's daily double at odds of around 4.95.

Read Dan Weston's thoughts on the opening day of the French Open here