French Open Analysis: Improving Rune set to test Tsitsipas

Sean Calvert
29 May 2022

Sean Calvert expects Rune to test Tsitsipas on day 9 in Paris

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Round four of the 2022 French Open completes on Monday and Sean Calvert returns to analyse the match-ups on day nine in Paris...

"If we take the main level clay stats from the short-term (this season) of these two and compare them, we find that Tsitsipas is ahead, but not by much..."

The remaining spots in the quarter finals of the men's singles are up for grabs on Monday and we have four matches that look far more competitively priced than those played out on Sunday.

All of the favourites won on Sunday (Alcaraz was still in-play at the time of writing) to make it 11 (12 if Alcaraz wins) straight winning favourites and this is exactly what was expected, hence the lowering of stakes in the second week.

Hubert Hurkacz AO 2022.jpg

Firstly, Casper Ruud takes on Hubert Hurkacz in a match that the layers have Ruud a 1.625/8 favourite for and that price looks about right to me.

Ruud was tested by a purple patch from Lorenzo Sonego on Saturday and that highlighted Ruud's vulnerability against powerful hitters when they're on song.

The problem for Sonego was the same one that many others have found against Ruud and that's when their level drops a little the Norwegian is there to take advantage and he did it well against Sonego.

Comparing the 12-month main level clay stats of Ruud and Hurkacz, the first thing that stands out is that they both hold serve a lot - 87% for Ruud and 89% for Hurkacz - but Ruud is better on return, breaking 27% of the time, while Hurkacz needs to improve that part of his game on 20% breaks.

Against the current top-25, Hurkacz is 2-6 win/loss on clay, while Ruud is 7-3, so I think Hurkacz has a bit to find against better opposition on this surface and Ruud looks a fair favourite

There's only 2.5% between them in terms of combined service/return points won over the past year, but Hurkacz has only played 13 matches in that time and if we go further back to each players' last 50 on clay (Hurkacz has only played 33, so his stats are based on that) Ruud is further ahead.

Hurkacz's recent stats, I feel, have been boosted by some easy wins over weak or injured opponents and David Goffin was certainly the latter on Saturday.

Against the current top-25, Hurkacz is 2-6 win/loss on clay, while Ruud is 7-3, so I think Hurkacz has a bit to find against better opposition on this surface and Ruud looks a fair favourite here.

If Hurkacz serves well he can make it pretty competitive, but I like the 3-1 to Ruud here at 4.3100/30.

Rune capable of challenging Tsitsipas

The second match that could be interesting on Monday is the one between Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas and I have to give Rune some sort of chance here.

My worry with Rune against Hugo Gaston was fitness, but the injured ankle seemed fine and it was a pretty short match at night, so Rune's suspect stamina didn't come into play.

If we take the main level clay stats from the short-term (this season) of these two and compare them, we find that Tsitsipas is ahead, but not by much.

Rune's hold/break total is an impressive 110, while Tsitsipas is on 113, while in terms of combined service points won/return points won Rune is on 106 and Tsitsipas 108, so it's closer perhaps than the odds suggest.

Indeed, on return, where Tsitsipas isn't quite at elite level, it's Rune that's created more break chances per game (0.73 compared to 0.59), while Tsitsipas has done well this year on converting break points, taking almost half of his break opportunities (49%) on clay this season.

It could be argued, too, that Rune has been the more impressive of the pair so far this French Open, while Tsitsipas really struggled against Lorenzo Musetti and Zdenek Kolar before easing past the outmatched Mikael Ymer.

I did think that Rune might have trouble with the variety of Gaston, but he handled it very well, and I expect this to be another tough one for Tsitsipas unless Rune gets nervous being in the second week of a major for the first time.

I haven't seen anything much from Rune so far to make me suspect that he's a particularly nervy character, so I'm happy to take Tsitsipas on a bit here.

What would worry me as a Rune backer here is if it went really long and then there's a chance that the cramping issue might rear its head, but 2.26/5 about Rune with a 5.5 game start on the handicap is worth half a point.

Injury doubts surround Sinner ahead of Rublev clash

The other two matches are tougher to call for me, with the injury situation surrounding Jannik Sinner making his match against Andrey Rublev a bit of a coin toss.

The feeling I can get from watching both is that Sinner has the more complete game, but my concern with Sinner hasn't changed from how I felt pre-tournament and that's his questionable fitness and stamina.

He doesn't look strong enough to complete a two-week major to me, especially on clay, and once again he's got yet another injury, this time it's the left knee that's the problem, but it always seems like there's some sort of injury issue with Sinner.

Of that injury (he started his last match against Mackenzie McDonald with taping on that knee) Sinner said: "I don't want to talk about the injury. I feel it a little bit. I am not feeling 100% and that is for sure."

On the one-year clay stats there's not a lot in it, with Sinner marginally ahead, but I feel Sinner has the answers against Rublev. Question is, is he fit enough?

Cilic can cause problems for Medvedev

Marin Cilic RG 2022.jpg

Finally, a really tricky one, with Marin Cilic against Daniil Medvedev and on the 12-month main level clay data it's possible that there may be some slight value on Cilic.

It's a small sample size of only 13 matches (Cilic) and nine (Medvedev) so perhaps not that reliable, but Cilic's combined service points won/return points won total of 108 is close to Medvedev's 110 and his hold/break total of 115 is excellent (Medvedev superb on 122).

Cilic has faced very little this tournament so far, with Atilla Balazs and Gilles Simon not anywhere vaguely close to their best level or fitness, but the win over Marton Fucsovics was good, so I could see Cilic at least hanging with Medvedev a while here.

The Croat was two sets up on Medvedev at Wimbledon last year due to some unplayable stuff and he started well against the Russian in Davis Cup indoors back in December, too, but he can't keep his best level going for long these days and Medvedev to win it 3-1 is a possible play here at 3.814/5.