French Open Daily Double: Home duo Simon and Gaston offer Saturday value

Round three completes on Saturday at the 2022 French Open and we're expecting another rain-free day in prospect, with the wind getting up a bit during the night session.

As well as Holger Rune has been playing lately, I wonder about him on Saturday night against Hugo Gaston for two reasons.

Firstly, I'm not convinced about Rune's physical condition over this longer format of the game and secondly, he might get taken right out of his preferred baseline rhythm by the funky style of Gaston.

Rune was barely able to complete his match against Manuel Guinard in Lyon due to cramps and here in Paris on Thursday he went over on his ankle and later withdrew from the doubles.

I'm not convinced about Rune's physical condition over this longer format of the game and he might get taken right out of his preferred baseline rhythm by the funky style of Gaston

On that issue, Rune's mother (and manager) said: "Fortunately it is not a brutal swelling like in China. Of course, Holger needs to be completely ready for Saturday. He's okay. It is swollen, but it is not brutal."

It will almost certainly be the case that Rune will have to do a lot of running in this match, with Gaston highly likely to be chucking in a lot of drop shots and it remains to be seen how Rune will cope with that physically and tactically.

So far in Paris he's faced players coming at him with very strong forehands (Shapovalov and Laaksonen) who rely on power, while Gaston will utilise far more craft and variety.

Gaston is a total enigma - delightful to watch when he's on song or a bit of a mess if he isn't - but he's enjoyed himself on the big stage here, winning five of his seven matches (one loss was in five sets against then-world number three, Dominic Thiem) so he's worth the risk in these circumstances with the crowd on his side in the night session.

If Rune doesn't manage to come to terms with Gaston's irregular style quite quickly I could see this one going long and +1.5 sets on Gaston at 2.255/4 is the bet here.

Has Simon got one more big effort in him?

The other match where there might be some value is to take Gilles Simon in some way against Marin Cilic, who's fallen into the Simon web on many occasions in the past.

Their head-to-head reads 6-1 to Simon, but interestingly, the player that's won the first set (usually Cilic) has gone on to lose the match in five of their seven meetings.

Simon is rated a 10.09/1 shot to lose the first set and win this time, but it's tough to see him doing that now at 37 years of age and after six-and-a-half hours on court already this tournament.

I remember very well their 2014 clash at the US Open when neither man played well and Cilic recorded his only win (so far) over Simon in a really scrappy five setter and then, incredibly, went on to win the tournament without dropping another set.

That was the only time that Cilic was able to solve the puzzle of Simon's intelligent match play and if we look at the stats of those seven career matches, one thing stands out - Simon's break point save percentage of 71%.

That's big over a seven-match series and it may well be the case that Simon has got into Cilic's head and simply outfoxed Cilic with his changes of pace, angles, directions and spins.

Cilic has been in good form so far this French Open, but he had a gimme in round one against Atilla Balazs, who had barely played for 18 months due to injury and then in round two Marton Fucsovics was one break point away from serving for a 2-0 lead.

The obvious worry with backing Simon here is his legs going, but he's not going to lie down in what might be his last ever match at the French Open, and I'd be surprised if he didn't at least take a set here.

So, Simon to win a set and Gaston +1.5 sets makes a 3.7511/4 Saturday double.