French Open Analysis: Fast-starting Cilic can cause problems for Rublev

Sean Calvert
31 May 2022

Cilic has a record of starting matches quickly against top-10 opponents

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The remaining spots in the semi finals of the men's singles are up for grabs on Wednesday and Sean Calvert is back to analyse the day's play in Paris...

"In his last nine matches versus top-10 opponents Cilic has won the opening set seven times, lost in a tie break once and the other one he lost 6-4 to Novak Djokovic."

There's quarter final action at the French Open on Wednesday, with the last four players in contention in the bottom half of the draw battling it out for semi final spots.

With high seeds in the bottom half Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev out of the tournament there's a great opportunity here for someone to go on and make a major final and I wonder how much of a factor nerves will be today?

On several occasions we've seen how nervy Andrey Rublev can be and his record in what I would describe as 'big matches' isn't the best, so it's a risk backing the Russian at 1.748/11 against Marin Cilic, although the price is tempting.

If we look back at some of the biggest matches that Rublev has played, he's almost always failed to rise to the challenge, with the latest one being the Indian Wells semi final in March when he lost as 1.4640/85 favourite to Taylor Fritz in straight sets.

Before that there was the Cincy final (lost 6-2, 6-3 to Zverev), the Monte-Carlo final (lost to Tsitsipas 6-3, 6-3), and the Miami semi final (lost 6-3, 6-4 to Hurkacz as a 1.232/9 favourite).

He didn't win a set in any of those four matches and in major quarter finals so far in his career Rublev is 0-4 win/loss and 0-12 in sets.

If we look back at some of the biggest matches that Rublev has played, he's almost always failed to rise to the challenge

Not to have won a single set in any of those eight big matches tells a tale and the Miami loss to Hurkacz is a good example of how Rublev, for me, talked himself out of it with a spot in the final against Sinner or Bautista Agut up for grabs.

That was a great opportunity for all four of those players and Rublev handled it poorly, saying: "I was not playing that aggressive like normally I'm playing. I was a bit more defensive. So, yeah, I didn't probably handle pressure, emotions well, and that was the key."

Now he's faced with almost the same scenario again - a spot in a maiden major final is a definite possibility for Rublev (remember, he's beaten Ruud five times in six meetings) and he'll know that - the question is, how will he handle it?

Perhaps the Miami experience will help him here, but he's had plenty of opportunities now and failed when the pressure is on and he also lost to today's opponent Cilic at the Australian Open this year.

Cilic played about as well as he can in dismissing Daniil Medvedev on Monday night and that's the sort of level he found when he beat Rublev in Melbourne, but the question for Cilic is, can he repeat it?

Performances like that from Cilic are rare these days, with the Croat's record versus top-10 opposition since the end of 2018 reading 3-15 win/loss

I'm not confident that he will, as we've seen an awful lot of performances from him in recent years that have been poor and some that have been in parts excellent and in other parts really bad, so this price on Cilic of 2.3211/8 is a bit short on that basis.

Performances like that from Cilic are rare these days, with the Croat's record versus top-10 opposition since the end of 2018 reading 3-15 win/loss, and Cilic was priced up at 3.3512/5 when he beat Rublev in Melbourne, so for me this 2.3211/8 is too short on Cilic to win the match.

This is a tough match to bet on, but the angle I'll take here (again only for half point stakes) is for Cilic to win set one at slight odds against and this is for two reasons: one is the evidence of slow and nervy starts by Rublev in big matches and the second is Cilic tends to start well against the big players.

In his last nine matches versus top-10 opponents Cilic has won the opening set seven times, lost in a tie break once and the other one he lost 6-4 to Novak Djokovic.

The 5.04/1 on the Sportsbook about Cilic winning the first set and losing the match is also of interest here, with Cilic doing exactly that five times in his last nine meetings with top-10 opposition.

Ruud rather short in price for Rune clash

In the other of Wednesday's quarter finals, Casper Ruud takes a 3-0 career series lead into his clash with up-and-coming Holger Rune, but their last match was one that Rune should have won and he's a much shorter price now.

That last match was only six weeks ago in Monte-Carlo when Ruud was struggling to adapt back from hard courts where he'd made the final in Miami and a lack of experience from Rune allowed Ruud to edge it 7-6, 7-5.

Rune was ahead in both sets on a day when he was priced up at 5.95 and now that he's won a title and made the quarters of the French the Dane is now as short as 2.8615/8 to beat the Norwegian.

If we take the clay stats of 2022 at main level and compare those of Ruud and Rune we can see that Ruud's been stronger on serve (87% holds of serve compared to 80% for Rune) and Rune has been more effective on return (30% breaks of serve compared to 23% for Ruud).

I think the layers are simply going with experience here, with Rune in uncharted territory in a major quarter final, but I'm not seeing any value at all in Ruud's price today

So, Ruud is on a total of 110 hold/break and Rune is exactly the same, while in terms of combined service points won/return points won Ruud is on 106 and Rune 105.

Very little in it then and it's Ruud that's played more clay court tennis lately (24 matches this swing compared to 20 for Rune), so it could be argued that he'll be the more fatigued, although Rune has something to prove as far as stamina is concerned, too.

I think the layers are simply going with experience here, with Rune in uncharted territory in a major quarter final, but I'm not seeing any value at all in Ruud's price today.

If Rune handles the occasion he's got a decent chance here and could be value if he doesn't get nervy.