Paris Masters Day Two Tips: Struff a false underdog for Carreno-Busta clash

Fatigue concerns for Mannarino and Millman

After 14 matches in the opening round yesterday, the first round concludes with another 10 clashes, with proceedings getting underway at 10:00 UK time in Paris. There are also five second-round matches later on in today's schedule as some of yesterday's winners, mixed in with some seeded players who received first-round byes, continue their tournaments.

There's quite a lot to discuss and firstly I want to look at the travel fatigue issue which is likely to be a hurdle for Adrian Mannarino and John Millman to overcome. The duo played the final of Nur-Sultan on Sunday in Kazakhstan, and now have afternoon starts today in Paris. Not only did they potentially incur more fatigue than most players in the draw getting to the final, but they had to subsequently travel as well to the French capital as well - it will be interesting to see their condition today.

In normal circumstances, the 1.9110/11 about Mannarino to beat clay-courter Dusan Lajovic on a relatively pacy indoor hard court would be absolutely absurd, and it still looks a little big even considering the arduous schedule which the Frenchman has had to endure. However, it's tough to have a great deal of confidence in the pricing for this one.

Millman at 2.427/5 against Miomir Kecmanovic would also look generous in normal circumstances but again, the same reasoning applies. We just don't know what we are going to be getting.

Anderson and Berrettini potentially vulnerable favourites

This is also the case for Kevin Anderson, who pulled out in the second set before he was to be defeated on court by Andrey Rublev in the semi-final of Vienna last week. Today, the South African faces Laslo Djere who is another clay-courter with pretty weak data on hard courts, but the 1.292/7 could be vulnerable if there are any issues for Anderson.

Other potential value spots include Tommy Paul who looks big as a 2.809/5 underdog against the veteran, Gilles Simon, although Simon hasn't performed at a poor level since the indoor season resumed, while Matteo Berrettini could be another vulnerable favourite, at 1.351/3 for his match against the improving Marcos Giron.

Recency bias affecting Sonego price

However, it's a tough call for who to choose for today's recommendation between several other players. Firstly, Lorenzo Sonego looks very short at 1.664/6 for his match against Alexander Bublik. There's probably some recency bias at play here with Sonego being valued highly after getting to the Vienna final last week after qualifying as a lucky loser, but he played seven matches in nine days in Austria before having to travel to France, and rather similarly to Mannarino and Millman, he's unlikely to be particularly full of energy either.

If the duo met in the first round in Vienna last week the prices probably would have been reversed and that was indeed the case when they met in the second round of the French Open around a month ago.

Struff with better indoor data than Carreno-Busta

The other match I want to discuss as a potential pick is Pablo Carreno-Busta against Jan-Lennard Struff, with both players getting pretty routine straight-set wins yesterday in their opening round matches.

Struff has decent pedigree indoors although that hasn't translated itself into results this indoor season, although there's some context - he lost a tight three setter to Stefanos Tsitsipas (no disgrace there at all) last week in Vienna and in the second round of Cologne the week prior, he lost a final set tie-break to Yoshihito Nishioka.

Across the last three years, Struff has a better indoor record than Carreno-Busta, running at around a 4% greater service/return points won percentage, and the Spaniard, Carreno-Busta, has unimpressive career data indoors, with a below 100% combined figure for this metric.

I actually make Struff the favourite here so the 2.3211/8 about the German appeals and he is capable of progressing into round three at what looks like a value price today.

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