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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">Madrid Masters Final Tips: Alcaraz a heavy favourite for yet another clay title</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan-weston/">Dan Weston</a></li> <li><time datetime="2023-05-07">07 May 2023</time></li> <li>3:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Madrid Masters Final Tips: Alcaraz a heavy favourite for yet another clay title", "name": "Madrid Masters Final Tips: Alcaraz a heavy favourite for yet another clay title", "description": "The final of the Madrid Masters takes place this evening in the Spanish capital, and yet again, Carlos Alcaraz is a heavy favourite to win. Dan Weston sees i...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/the-final-of-the-madrid-masters-alcaraz-heavy-favourite-070523-778.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/the-final-of-the-madrid-masters-alcaraz-heavy-favourite-070523-778.html", "datePublished": "2023-05-07T13:04:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2023-05-07T13:27:00+01:00", "articleBody": "The final of the Madrid Masters takes place this evening in the Spanish capital, and yet again, Carlos Alcaraz is a heavy favourite to win. Dan Weston sees if there's any upset potential... Huge theoretical mismatch in tonight's final Alcaraz return game should be too much for Struff Struff needing to serve well and take key points Alcaraz continues dominance in home country I haven't checked, but I'm pretty certain we'd have to go a long way back in the history books - if it has ever happened - to see a Masters 1000 final between the tournament favourite and a lucky loser from qualifying, but that's exactly what represents the Championship match in Madrid tonight, as Carlos Alcaraz faces Jan-Lennard Struff. Unsurprisingly, Alcaraz, repeatedly, is the overwhelming pre-match favourite. The world number one is currently trading at [1.06], a similar line to matches against opponents who aren't Alexander Zverev in this tournament. Across Barcelona and Madrid, Alcaraz is 20-1 in sets, adequately illustrating his dominance against his tour rivals currently, and also demonstrates quite how difficult the task is going to be for Struff to cause a shock result. Winning five deciding sets in a row have got Struff to this stage, and having played several qualifiers as well, the German must be fatigued. Hardly the ideal way to face the best clay-courter on tour by some distance right now, with Rafa Nadal sidelined. Match dynamics different to previous meetings Interestingly, both previous matches between the duo have been close, albeit in rather different circumstances to tonight. Struff defeated Alcaraz at the French Open in 2021 - when Alcaraz was barely ranked inside the top 100 - and pushed the Spaniard to five sets last year at Wimbledon, on grass where Alcaraz had little main tour experience. The situation is different today - top ranked, on clay, in his home country, which is why the market perceives this to be not far from a foregone conclusion. The duo have pretty similar serve numbers on clay over the last 12 months but as was the case against Borna Coric in the semi-final, Alcaraz has a gigantic edge on return data. For this to be close, I feel that Struff has to serve at his best. If he can hold 90% of the time, which is a huge stretch given how good Alcaraz is on return, and nicking a few key points, then this would look like the most feasible - but extremely unlikely - route to success. Otherwise, we can expect yet another routine Alcaraz win. ", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard Struff Halle 2022.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard Struff Halle 2022.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard Struff Halle 2022.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dan Weston", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan_weston" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard Struff Halle 2022.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard Struff Halle 2022.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard Struff Halle 2022.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard Struff Halle 2022.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="German Tennis Player Jan-Lennard Struff"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Jan-Lennard Struff is a huge underdog to win the title...</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/carlos-alcaraz-v-struff-betting-32328473" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/carlos-alcaraz-v-struff-betting-32328473">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Madrid%20Masters%20Final%20Tips%3A%20Alcaraz%20a%20heavy%20favourite%20for%20yet%20another%20clay%20title&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fthe-final-of-the-madrid-masters-alcaraz-heavy-favourite-070523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fthe-final-of-the-madrid-masters-alcaraz-heavy-favourite-070523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fthe-final-of-the-madrid-masters-alcaraz-heavy-favourite-070523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fthe-final-of-the-madrid-masters-alcaraz-heavy-favourite-070523-778.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fthe-final-of-the-madrid-masters-alcaraz-heavy-favourite-070523-778.html&text=Madrid%20Masters%20Final%20Tips%3A%20Alcaraz%20a%20heavy%20favourite%20for%20yet%20another%20clay%20title" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>The final of the Madrid Masters takes place this evening in the Spanish capital, and yet again, Carlos Alcaraz is a heavy favourite to win. Dan Weston sees if there's any upset potential...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <ul> <li> <h3>H<strong>uge theoretical mismatch in tonight's final</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Alcaraz return game should be too much for Struff</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Struff needing to serve well and take key points</strong></h3> </li> <hr><h2>Alcaraz continues dominance in home country</h2><p></p><p>I haven't checked, but I'm pretty certain we'd have to go a long way back in the history books - if it has ever happened - to see a Masters 1000 final between the tournament favourite and a lucky loser from qualifying, but that's exactly what represents the Championship match in Madrid tonight, as <strong>Carlos Alcaraz</strong> faces <strong>Jan-Lennard Struff</strong>.</p><p>Unsurprisingly, Alcaraz, repeatedly, is the overwhelming pre-match favourite. The world number one is currently trading at <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/carlos-alcaraz-v-struff-betting-32328473"><b class="inline_odds" title="1/18"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.06</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/18</span></b></a>, a similar line to matches against opponents who aren't Alexander Zverev in this tournament. Across Barcelona and Madrid, Alcaraz is 20-1 in sets, adequately illustrating his dominance against his tour rivals currently, and also demonstrates quite how difficult the task is going to be for Struff to cause a <strong>shock result</strong>.</p><blockquote>Winning five deciding sets in a row have got Struff to this stage, and having played several qualifiers as well, the German must be fatigued. Hardly the ideal way to face the best clay-courter on tour by some distance right now, with Rafa Nadal sidelined.</blockquote><h2>Match dynamics different to previous meetings</h2><p></p><p>Interestingly, both previous matches between the duo have been close, albeit in <strong>rather different circumstances</strong> to tonight. Struff defeated Alcaraz at the French Open in 2021 - when Alcaraz was barely ranked inside the top 100 - and pushed the Spaniard to five sets last year at Wimbledon, on grass where Alcaraz had little main tour experience.</p><p>The situation is different today - top ranked, on clay, in his home country, which is why the market perceives this to be not far from a <strong>foregone conclusion</strong>. The duo have pretty similar serve numbers on clay over the last 12 months but as was the case against Borna Coric in the semi-final, Alcaraz has a gigantic edge on return data.</p><p>For this to be close, I feel that Struff has to serve at his best. If he can hold 90% of the time, which is a huge stretch given how good Alcaraz is on return, and nicking a few key points, then this would look like the most feasible - but extremely unlikely - route to success. 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