Rome Masters Final Tips: Improving Medvedev capable of Monte Carlo revenge over Rune

• Expect today's final to impact French Open outright market

• Rune with market edge over Medvedev

• Medvedev to turn tables from Monte Carlo loss

Tsitsipas already drifting for French Open

This is the final chance for players on-court to have a considerable impact for French Open pricing, with Stefanos Tsitsipas having already drifting in the outright market after his loss in straight sets to Daniil Medvedev in yesterday's semi-finals. The French Open market is suspended currently at the time of writing, ahead of today's Rome final.

Rune marginal favourite over Medvedev

A competitive final today in Rome should be anticipated today, with the market struggling to split the duo - Rune is the very marginal 1.9110/11 favourite, which as with yesterday's match featuring Medvedev and Tsitsipas, is a price out of line with the general market pricing for Roland Garros, where Medvedev is around 2.5 times the price of Rune.

The duo met last month in slower conditions in Monte Carlo, with Rune winning 6-3 6-4, but I'm not sure how much I want to read into that, given Medvedev's noted distaste for slow conditions. Rune was priced around the 1.804/5 mark that day, so him being a bigger price despite that win actually makes sense given the discrepancy in conditions.

Evidence that Medvedev is improving on clay

Medvedev has arguably had the smoother run to this stage, dropping one set only in five matches, whereas Rune has required deciders in his last three and needed to fight back from a set and break down yesterday against Casper Ruud in a match which took around an hour more than Medvedev's win over Tsitsipas.

In fact, Medvedev does have a very slight edge on the tournament data so far to get to this stage, with a particular advantage on return points won percentages, and I feel that how much pressure he can put on Rune's serve will dictate plenty in terms of the eventual outcome of this match.

On clay this year, there's a similar dynamic actually, so there's not an abundance of evidence that Rune should be favourite here. Perhaps a lot of that is down to people thinking 'Medvedev on clay = avoid', but there's growing evidence that he's becoming more competent on his worst surface, particularly away from those hated slow conditions.

Medvedev as an underdog will be today's recommendation.