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Second seed Medvedev expected to make semi-finals
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Alcaraz a strong favourite despite Hurkacz battle
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Rested Sinner should defeat veteran Monfils
Davidovich Fokina needs to back up epic victory
There is plenty to discuss on day five of the Rogers Cup, with ATP action getting underway a little later than earlier in the week, starting at 17:30 UK time with Mackenzie McDonald versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina the first match on the schedule.
It's Davidovich Fokina who is the favourite here, at a current 1.715/7, following a hard-fought final set tiebreak win over Casper Ruud in round three. That was his third consecutive underdog win in this event, having eased past JJ Wolf and Alexander Zverev in the previous rounds.
One talking point from that victory against Ruud is the length of time on court which the Spaniard needed to progress - just in excess of three hours - which could make it tricky for him to back up here against McDonald.
In fact, McDonald is yet to drop a set here and has beaten very competent opposition indeed. Rankings-wise, he's beaten a top 10 player (Rublev) and two lower ranked players with very high ceilings (Karatsev and Raonic) whose ranks aren't reflective of their abilities. Make no mistake, it's been an impressive tournament for McDonald.
There's really not an abundance of difference between the two players from a data perspective. Davidovich Fokina, more so on return, has a slight edge, but there really isn't much to separate the duo.
Is Davidovich Fokina a little short-priced at the current market lines? Quite possibly, but it's certainly not a huge mistake from the market, in my opinion.
Medvedev's serve edge should see him victorious
Next on court is second seed Daniil Medvedev who faces Alex De Minaur, and it's Medvedev who is the 1.351/3 favourite to make the semi-finals. He has a 4-1 career lead over De Minaur, although he did lose the last meeting indoors in Paris last year in a close three-setter.
Looking at year-long hard court data, though, Medvedev has a pretty sizable edge on serve numbers and it's tough to dispute the market price here at all on that basis. It looks pretty accurate.
Paul hoping for another Alcaraz off-day
In the night matches, tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz faces Tommy Paul with the match scheduled to start not before midnight UK time.
Top seed Alcaraz is 1.222/9 to get the better of his American opponent, very slightly bigger-priced than the last time they met. That day, Alcaraz was priced at around 1.182/11 and won 4 & 4 against Paul.
However, Alcaraz has underwhelmed so far to get to this stage. Ben Shelton took him to a second set tiebreak in his opener, while he needed two consecutive tiebreak wins to defeat Hubert Hurkacz in three sets last night.
If he struggles again, Paul could cause a shock, but I think it's pretty unlikely and the current market lines reflect that.
Monfils must roll back years to shock Sinner
Finally, arguably the surprise package of the tournament, Gael Monfils, meets Jannik Sinner in the late-night match. Monfils' run here has come from pretty much nowhere, having missed Wimbledon with injury and underwhelming this season in general (his win over Sebastian Baez at the French Open at the end of May was his first main tour win all season).
On this basis at least, he would have to really roll back the years and be peak Monfils if he's going to have a chance of shocking Sinner here. The Italian picked up a solid win over countryman Matteo Berrettini in his opener, before benefitting from Andy Murray's withdrawal yesterday.
On that basis, Sinner should be pretty fresh and return data suggests that he has a big advantage over Monfils on hard court. Monfils is probably going to have to serve incredibly, and consistently, well if he is going to cause another shock result here.