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Sinner with history on his side
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Dream week for De Minaur so far
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Set handicap market looks to be the value
De Minaur and Sinner meet in the Championship match
Straight-set victories was the order of the day in Toronto last night with Alex De Minaur getting the better of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and in the later match, Jannik Sinner seeing off the threat of Tommy Paul, also by a 2-0 set scoreline.
Last time the duo met, straight sets were also on the menu as Sinner eased to a 6-4 6-1 win on quick clay in Madrid, priced at around the 1.501/2 mark before the match started. While clay should give Sinner benefit over De Minaur, the fact that it was at the quickest clay venue in Madrid somewhat negated this. Indeed, Sinner is 4-0 up over the Australian, so De Minaur will need to turn history around if he is to emerge with the trophy tonight.
De Minaur impressing this week with big name scalps
Interestingly, Sinner is a slightly shorter price this evening than he was that day in Madrid, with the Italian currently trading at 1.4740/85 to win the title. He's certainly benefited from a kind schedule with a bye and withdrawal, so has only needed to play seven sets (winning six) to make the final.
Conversely, De Minaur has needed 11 sets, but was only pushed to three sets once, winning ten. Also, De Minaur has beaten three top 11 seeds, including second favourite Daniil Medvedev, so has played at an excellent level to get to the final.
Hard court data suggests minimal difference between the duo
In terms of points won percentages on hard court this season, there is little difference between the two, both hovering just below the 54% mark. Sinner has a serve advantage, while De Minaur has impressed more on return, so there's little from a data perspective to suggest that Sinner should be quite as short-priced as he is, particularly given the previous clay price last year.
As the handicap markets develop over the next eight hours or so, we should be able to get around 1.758/11 on the 'De Minaur to win a set?' Market on the Exchange, and I think this is a pretty viable option ahead of what should be an excellent final in Canada this evening.