Rogers Cup Day 4 Tips: Raonic can continue comeback with victory over McDonald

• Draw opens up after big names exit

• Raonic the pick on day four

• Sinner likely to be too good for Murray

Giron wins for us on day of shocks

Marcos Giron helped us pick up a winner on day three, not just covering the game handicap but getting the better of Holger Rune in a deciding set for a heavy underdog victory. Also shocked was Sebastian Korda, Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev and also Stefanos Tsitsipas, who was dumped out by Gael Monfils.

However, the top two seeds, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev, progressed in straight sets, as did Jannik Sinner over countryman Matteo Berrettini. As has often been the case this year, Andy Murray did things the hard way, nicking a late break to see off the threat of the qualifier, Max Purcell.

Ruud could be tested by Davidovich Fokina

Action in Toronto gets underway at 1600 UK time, with Casper Ruud taking on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the opener. The market is anticipating a tight match, with Ruud the slight 1.845/6 favourite currently.

When I saw this line initially, I thought Ruud was generously priced, but a look at the season-long hard court data for the duo got me back into line - actually Davidovich Fokina has pretty reasonable numbers on the surface and should be no pushover here, especially following his easy win over Zverev last night.

Raonic's serve the key against McDonald

Another close match in the market's view is Mackenzie McDonald versus Milos Raonic, with wild-card Raonic continuing his progress in his home Masters event as he attempts to rebuild his world ranking.

Raonic's performance against Taro Daniel yesterday should give him confidence that he can do so. The Canadian faced zero break point chances on his serve, and won 90% of first serve points in a strong serving display, and if he can stay fit, could provide a threat to most players in the field.

We have to go back to 2018 for the last time the duo met on hard court, and Raonic was priced up at around 1.152/13 for that match. I like Raonic's chances at the far bigger price of 1.9420/21 this evening.

Murray facing tough Sinner test

Finally, Andy Murray continues his event with a very difficult-looking meeting against Jannik Sinner. While Sinner hasn't convinced hugely in the last few months, his win over fellow Italian Berrettini was a nice positive, and is priced at 1.292/7 against the Scottish veteran.

On hard court this year, there is no comparison between the duo. Sinner has a marginal edge on serve data, but has a huge advantage on return, breaking opponents 14% more frequently than Murray, who has pretty mediocre return numbers these days. While you can never write Murray off, it would be a surprise if he defeated Sinner this evening.