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Norrie with tough clash against De Minaur
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Murray and Evans vulnerable favourites
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Shelton can get season back on track
Alex De Minaur v Cameron Norrie
There are plenty of Brits involved on Tuesday in Canada as Andy Murray, Dan Evans and Cam Norrie all start their tournaments against mixed quality of opposition.
Norrie got a tough draw against Alex De Minaur for his opener and, having struggled of late, is rightfully underdog against the Australian at 2.1011/10. De Minaur reached the final in Los Cabos in his last event, and his superior return game (3% edge on return points won on hard court this year) has been factored in by the market with the pricing.
Murray and Evans, however, are pre-match favourites, with Murray 1.558/15 to get past Lorenzo Sonego. The Scotsman was priced at around 1.804/5 for their match in Doha in February, which he nicked via a final set tiebreak, so today's price is a little shorter.
Sonego does have better serve numbers on hard court over the last year, while Murray has a return advantage, and I can't help thinking Murray is a little short-priced here.
Gabriel Diallo v Dan Evans
As for Evans, it's a question of whether he is motivated and has enough energy left in the tank following his title in Washington last week. He's 1.528/15 against the Canadian wild-card Gabriel Diallo who shocked Evans on grass in the Surbiton Challenger several months ago.
Diallo has lost four of his last five and six of his last eight, being pre-match favourite in most, so it's hardly a given that he will come into this clash full of confidence.
Evans had a similarly dreadful run prior to that Washington title, and on paper at least, should get the job done against an opponent who rarely plays on the main tour. However, this does have the feel of a rather high variance match-up where there are quite a few intangibles.
Ben Shelton v Bernabe Zapata Miralles
Another player out of form is 20-year-old Ben Shelton who has struggled since his breakthrough in the Australian Open six months ago. The American is 2-9 in his last 11 matches, and has suffered consecutive defeats to qualifier Juncheng Shang in hard court events. Shelton's last four defeats have all come as a pre-match favourite, exacerbating his poor run further.
Shelton will be hoping to return to winning in an opening round match against clay-courter Bernabe Zapata Miralles who hasn't played a competitive match on hard court for five months. He played two in March, both straight-set defeats in Masters events, and was 0-3 in January on the surface as well.
In theory at least, this is about as kind a draw as Shelton could have received. His serve should be too strong for the Spaniard and, even with his recent record, Shelton looks reasonably priced to take this.
Finally, in normal circumstances, it would be surprising to see Ugo Humbert as an underdog at 2.3611/8 against Nicolas Jarry. The Frenchman has above-average hard court data over the last year, which is something that can't be said for Jarry.
However, we don't quite know about Humbert's fitness for this, following his withdrawal at the quarter-final stage in Washington last week. If Humbert is in decent shape, though, this price would be a fair bit out of line.
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