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Monfils faces tough task against Eubanks
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Tough to assess Raonic's current level
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Berrettini leads strong Italian challenge
Veterans Monfils and Raonic in action on day one
There's a busy day ahead in Toronto with first-round Rogers Cup action and some fascinating clashes to start the opening day. Highlights include Gael Monfils versus Chris Eubanks, Milos Raonic against Frances Tiafoe, and Brandon Nakashima against Jiri Lehecka.
In the first two matches, injury-prone veterans meet players on the rise.
Gael Monfils has shown little evidence he's competing at a level close to his previous best so far. Certainly, an underdog win over Alexander Bublik in Washington will be viewed as a positive, but Monfils is 4-9 this year (including Challengers and Qualifiers), with pretty mediocre numbers as well, particularly on serve.
Of course, a strong serve is something which Eubanks possesses, having impressed at Wimbledon. Despite some mediocre results subsequently in US hard court events, he should have too much for the declining Monfils. Eubanks as an underdog at 2.206/5 looks a generous price.
As for Raonic, we have little to go on. Just four matches since 2021, all on grass, and with mixed results. The serve seems to be there still (89% hold in those matches) but the return game is as limited as it has been, and I think Frances Tiafoe will have too much for the Canadian here.
The market agrees, pricing Tiafoe up at 1.501/2.
Lehecka can extend Nakashima's bad run
The market is finding it tricky to split Nakashima and Lehecka, with the Czech a marginal 2.0811/10 underdog.
While he has very slightly worse numbers on hard court than Nakashima in the last year or so, this looks about right with the American going through a bad run currently, with results far below expectations (three wins from his last 10, all as a heavy pre-match favourite).
Trio of Italians expected to progress
There's also a theme of Italian players being expected to progress today with all solid favourites to do so. Matteo Berrettini impressed at Wimbledon and should get past the Frenchman Gregoire Barrere, while Lorenzo Musetti should have too much for Yoshihito Nishioka.
I'm also interested in seeing the continued progress of countryman Matteo Arnaldi, who has qualified to be here and faces wild card Vasek Pospisil.
Arnaldi has really shown his ability and potential on clay this year, with several Challenger title and an ATP semi-final, and now it's time to do so on hard court.
Qualifying here without dropping a set is a good starting point, and he should have too much for the rusty Pospisil, who has played just twice since February, losing on both occasions against lowly opposition.
Arnaldi is 1.434/9 to set up a potential clash with Thanasi Kokkinakis in round two.
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