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Alcaraz has the edge over Medvedev
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Lack of realistic other contenders
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Some underdogs capable of one-off shock wins
Alcaraz and Medvedev leading winner market
While it's not quite a two-horse race, the outright winner market on the Exchange has nailed its colours to the mast with two clear favourites for the Toronto title.
Carlos Alcaraz 2.747/4 and Daniil Medvedev 5.04/1, have between them an implied 57% chance of winning the title, making a top two seed title more likely than the other 54 players in the 56-man field.
Alcaraz with slightly easier quarter
There's scope to think that Alcaraz is undervalued for the title. He was highly impressive at Wimbledon and his showings on grass - a surface where he had little experience previously - were quite a surprise. Alcaraz's 12-match winning streak on grass showed his immense ability and continued career acceleration, which will have been noted by his top-10 rivals on tour.
Alcaraz also has the benefit of a relatively easier seed in his quarter than Medvedev. The Spaniard has Holger Rune in his bracket - a player who is yet to consistently show a high level on hard court - while Medvedev is drawn with Taylor Fritz, who has shown that level on the surface and looks to be another player on an upward curve, albeit not quite as steep as Alcaraz.
The market is struggling to split Rune and Fritz, both priced around the 28.027/1 mark at the time of writing, but if they were to play a match on hard court here, I'd make Fritz the favourite.
Sinner and Tsitsipas in next tier of contenders
Jannik Sinner 13.012/1 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 15.529/2 are seeded to fight it out in the quarter-finals for the right to meet Alcaraz in the semi-finals.
Sinner has the better hard court data but hasn't convinced for a while - an argument you can also throw at Tsitsipas although he did finally win his first tour title in 2023 recently in Los Cabos.
In summary, though, it's a stretch to think that either will be able to get the better of Alcaraz unless the world number one has an off-day.
Look at unseeded players as shock material
Looking through the unseeded players, it's more a case of trying to find players who can cause a shock in a one-off match against a big name for this week's daily previews.
A few names who could do that include the American trio of Tommy Paul, Chris Eubanks and Sebastian Korda, while Matteo Berrettini impressed at Wimbledon after a long injury lay-off and if serving well, has a real chance against most players.
It will also be interesting to see how Alexander Zverev fares after a morale-boosting win in Hamburg on clay recently without dropping a set, and we also see the continued return to tour of Milos Raonic, who faces a very tough opener against Frances Tiafoe.
With British interest in the shape of Andy Murray, Cam Norrie and Dan Evans, who returned to form in Washington last week with a surprise title, there's plenty of scope for one of these three to go well in the tournament and push for a quarter-final, at least.