Paris Masters Day Seven Tips: Not much to choose between Zverev and Medvedev

Zverev arguably fortunate to win in straight sets

Yesterday's semi-finals saw wins for Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev over Milos Raonic and Rafa Nadal, respectively, with both being decided in straight sets.

However, in the first semi-final, Medvedev arguably got fortunate with his 6-4 7-6 win, converting two from three break points and saving six of Milos Raonic's seven opportunities including saving three at *3-4 which would have seen him go a break down in the second set. This was a match that could easily have gone to a deciding set. In the second semi-final, it looked like a deserved win for Zverev over the King of Clay, with the German having more return games with break points in and winning 55% of points in the match.

Market finding it tough to split the finalists

These results see the two 24-year-olds meet at around 1400 UK time for the trophy, with Medvedev the very marginal 1.9420/21 favourite to get the win here. I actually think Zverev should be the marginal favourite, but the implied edge percentage of around 3% isn't enough to consider any recommendation.

As I've stated numerous times previously, the head-to-head results have the propensity to be pretty misleading, with Zverev leading the series 5-1 but the first four meetings were when Medvedev was ranked outside the top 40 and on the rise in his career, as opposed to being a consistent member of the top ten. The last two meetings were when both players were top 10 players, and they shared the spoils with a win apiece.

Data also shows there's not much between the duo

Indoors in the last 12 months, Zverev does have a marginal edge, running at almost a 109% combined service/return points won percentage and Medvedev lower at just shy of 107%. Medvedev has underperformed considerably on key points - particularly saving break points where he's running at almost 7% below expectation based on his service points won percentage - and this has contributed to his inconsistent results indoors during this time period.

Conversely, this week, both players have impressed - around 113-115% combined for the above metric - and both have won over 70% of service points. Medvedev has the slight edge this week, but the numbers clearly illustrate that there's not a lot between the duo, either short-term or more medium-term, and the market's not hugely out of line pricing the players around even money apiece here.

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