Paris Masters Day Five Tips: Markets accurate in French capital

Schwartzman needing to improve serve to test Medvedev

Action in the French capital gets underway later today, at 1300 UK time, with four quarter-finals on Friday's schedule, all featuring strong favourites priced around 1.501/2 or below. Unfortunately, from a pre-match perspective, the markets look pretty accurate with their pricing.

In the opening clash, Daniil Medvedev is a 1.538/15 favourite to get past Diego Schwartzman, just like he has in their three previous meetings. In those clashes, Schwartzman has struggled on serve, winning just 56% of service points, and he will need to markedly improve on his if he is to test the world number six.

The market line looks about right to me - I have Medvedev at 1.548/15 - with the Russian having a big serve advantage based on hard court numbers. So far in Paris this year, the serve data is marginally above the 2020 ATP indoor mean, and the non-slow conditions are likely to be more to Medvedev's liking than Schwartzman.

Raonic yet to drop serve this week

Milos Raonic is another player who should be comfortable here, and if I was forced to pick a recommendation for today it would be the Canadian at 1.4640/85 for his match with Ugo Humbert. The Frenchman, Humbert, got the better of our underdog pick from yesterday, Marin Cilic, but faces a higher calibre of opposition in Raonic, who hasn't dropped a set throughout the tournament so far.

Humbert, on the other hand, has edged three tight three-setters this week, and as a consequence, has less impressive data from the tournament so far than Raonic, who hasn't been broken all week so far, winning in excess of 80% of service points.

Nadal heavy favourite to progress past Carreno-Busta

Moving on, Rafa Nadal is 1.171/6 to progress past countryman Pablo Carreno-Busta, just as he has done in their six previous meetings. In those, Carreno-Busta has won just one set from the 14 competed, and has won just over 50% of service points, which is obviously a huge problem and one which must be addressed if he is to achieve a big upset here. Even though indoor hard isn't necessarily Nadal's best surface, losing to Carreno-Busta would be a big shock.

Zverev and Wawrinka potentially competitive

Finally, in the night match, Alexander Zverev is pretty accurately priced for his match against Stan Wawrinka at 1.454/9. The duo have met on three previous occasions, with Zverev triumphing in all three but Wawrinka taking a set in every loss.

The Swiss man, Wawrinka, caused a surprise getting past Andrey Rublev yesterday - particularly after losing the first set 6-1 - and will need to do the same today against another higher ranked younger player. Based on the records of both players since the tour resumed it would be a surprise if Wawrinka prevailed, but as we've seen numerous times before, he appears to be the man for the big occasion with a high ability ceiling. Zverev starts as a solid favourite but it would be foolish to write Wawrinka off here.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings