Monte Carlo Final Tips: Underdog Rublev will never get a better chance

Dan Weston
16 April 2023
2:00 min read

Dan fancies Andrey Rublev to win today's final

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The main focus on the tennis tour on Sunday is the final of the Monte Carlo Masters, between Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune. Dan Weston returns to give his thoughts on the title match...

Comebacks the order of the day on Saturday
Rune favourite to pick up second Masters title
Rublev looking like the value

Sinner out as Rune and Rublev progress

Both of yesterday's semi-finals went to a deciding set, and the loser of the first set prevailed in both, fighting back from that deficit.

Andrey Rublev eventually eased past Taylor Fritz, dropping just four games across the second and third sets, while Holger Rune shocked the tournament favourite at that stage, Jannik Sinner, despite winning four fewer points in the match.

To illustrate the surprise in this duo meeting in the final, Rublev is still yet to win a Masters 1000 title, losing to Alexander Zverev in Cincinnati in 2021, and at this venue to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the same year. Rune is one from one in Masters finals, beating Novak Djokovic in Paris towards the end of last season.

Market looks like it wants to support Rune

If Rublev is to pick up his first Masters title, he will need to overturn the odds. He's the 2.6813/8 underdog to be celebrating this evening, with Rune getting some decent market support and trading as the 1.584/7 favourite.

However, Rublev did win as an underdog against Rune in the Australian Open several months ago, in a five-set epic decided by a tiebreak.

I think that Rune's market support is potentially due to him now having beaten two top-10 opponents in the last two rounds, while Rublev perhaps has had the kinder draw up until this point.

Data gives Rublev a solid chance

Interestingly, 12 month clay data gives Rublev the edge. He's held slightly more often, and has also broken opponents marginally more frequently as well, winning on average 1% more points per match than Rune during this sample.

Rune does have better all-surface data in 2023 - very slightly - but realistically here there isn't enough evidence to support Rune being so short as the pre-match favourite.

Rublev has picked up several winners for us this week, looking under-rated by the market against both Fritz and also Karen Khachanov, and logically, looks value for the hat-trick here.

It won't be easy against the Norwegian 19-year-old, who is going to have a huge future in the sport, but now at 25 years of age, I'm not sure Rublev will ever get a better chance to pick up that first Masters title.

Back Andrey Rublev to Win @

2.68

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