Monte Carlo Day Four Tips: Rublev price attractive against Khachanov

Dan Weston
13 April 2023
2:00 min read

Andrey Rublev is up against Karen Khachanov

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The Monte Carlo Masters moves towards the last 16 with eight matches on the Thursday schedule. Returning to discuss the day ahead is Dan Weston...

Tsitsipas could be tested by Jarry
Rublev with data edge over Khachanov
Medvedev deserved slight favourite over Zverev

Fourth bagel for Musetti highly unlikely

Yesterday's matches largely went the way of the pre-match favourites, with there being a few talking points.

Firstly, Alexander Zverev picked up his first top-50 win of the season with his victory over Roberto Bautista-Agut, but fellow former top 10 player Dominic Thiem showed that he still has plenty to find as he was easily beaten by the 19-year-old Dane.

Holger Rune. Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz were also among the Wednesday winners.

All of those are back in action today in the last 16, with Novak Djokovic the shortest-priced favourite of the day.

The top seed is 1.21/5 to defeat Lorenzo Musetti, who actually double-bagelled countryman Luca Nardi yesterday - the third bagel he handed out in the tournament so far.

A fourth, against Djokovic, will be highly unlikely!

Jarry should keep it close against Tsitsipas

Slightly bigger-priced in the market are the likes of Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas, and of the three, I think Ruud is the least vulnerable to a shock.

Sinner faces the capable Hubert Hurkacz, while Tsitsipas could well be tested by the Chilean, Nicolas Jarry.

Jarry has already picked up a clay title this year, in Santiago, and took a set from Carlos Alcaraz in Rio de Janeiro in the semi-final of that event as well, so should be no mug at all in these slow clay conditions.

In fact, there's not an abundance between the two players when looking at 12-month clay data, with Tsitsipas having a small edge but certainly not one in line with the 1.292/7 market pricing.

Looking at handicap lines, Jarry +3.5 games looks reasonable enough considering both are capable servers. This should settle just over the even money mark in the run-up to the match.

Rublev looking value against Khachanov

Two other matches in particular look really fascinating.

The market is finding it pretty difficult to split Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov for their meeting, possibly slightly influenced by Rublev's unconvincing win over Jaume Munar in the previous round.

However, Rublev has better clay data over the last couple of years, recording higher service and return points won percentages, so his line at around even money looks pretty attractive.

Back Rublev to beat Khachanov @

1.98

Medvedev with historical supremacy over Zverev

Finally, countryman Daniil Medvedev is a slight 1.738/11 favourite over the aforementioned Zverev, having won six of their previous seven meetings.

Quite strangely, of their 13 previous clashes, none have been on clay, so this is a first in their head-to-head series.

For all of Medvedev's distaste for slow clay, I think the market price looks about right.

The duo have pretty similar clay data over the last couple of years, although I think it's still fair to suggest Zverev isn't back to his best levels (which he will have been at points in that data sample). Given this, and their recent history, Medvedev looks the deserved favourite to progress.

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