The first two matches in the Miami Open men's quarter finals take place today, and with Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev strong favourites, Dan Weston looks to see if they can be beaten...
"This year so far, Bublik has actually won a higher percentage of service points, although Sinner has a marginally bigger advantage on return - but there’s not much in it."
Bublik among underdog winners on Tuesday
Yesterday's action in Miami saw a couple of underdog victories, with Sebastian Korda ousting Diego Schwartzman, and Hubert Hurkacz getting the better of Milos Raonic. The other underdog winner was Alexander Bublik, who edged Taylor Fritz in three sets, and the man from Kazakhstan is back in action today with a quick turnaround for him and Jannik Sinner. The duo meet at 20:00 UK time this evening in the first men's quarter-final.
Not a great deal between Sinner and Bublik
For the match, Sinner is 1.422/5 to get the win, and I think that this is short. Several days ago, I discussed Sinner's overperformance on key points and in tiebreaks before his tight win over Karen Khachanov, and the same point stands here. This will have to mean-revert downwards in the near future, because this happens for every player who has this level of overperformance in these situations.
This year so far, Bublik has actually won a higher percentage of service points, although Sinner has a marginally bigger advantage on return - but there's not much in it.
The duo have a similar points won percentage, games won percentage and sets won percentage but there is one big difference - it's that tiebreak record which favours the Italian.
With the later start time today, the Exchange market is yet to form for the game handicap but the general market line for Bublik +3.5 games suggests that it will settle around the 1.9210/11 mark eventually, perhaps as high as 1.9520/21. This seems a fairly reasonable spot here, although not something I'm hugely enthused by.
Tournament favourite Medvedev faces Bautista-Agut
In the second quarter-final today, suitable for the night owls with a 130am start time, Daniil Medvedev meets Roberto Bautista-Agut. The Russian, Medvedev, is still the event favourite but has seen a slight drift in his price to just shy of the 2.608/5 mark to lift the trophy.
This lack of market support is somewhat applicable to his market price against Bautista-Agut for their quarter-final. Medvedev is 1.3130/100 to progress to the semi-finals, and I think that's very slightly too big. Yes, he was around 1.454/9 when they met in the quarter-finals of Cincinnati last year (Bautista-Agut won in three sets), but in the last six months, Medvedev has produced a much higher level than the Spaniard on hard courts - with markedly better service and return points won numbers.
Since their last meeting, Medvedev has won the Paris Masters, the ATP Tour Finals, the Marseille 250 and reached the final of the Australian Open, while Bautista-Agut has shown a mixed level, losing to the likes of Nikoloz Basilashvili, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Radu Albot and Vasek Pospisil.
I'd be pretty surprised if Medvedev was defeated overnight, and a win could put him around even money or even into odds-on territory for the title by the time the semi-finals start in several days time.
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