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Favourites ease into semi-finals
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Medvedev with big edge over Khachanov
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Alcaraz now 20-0 in sets in last 10 matches
Alcaraz shortens to around even money for the title
Anyone hoping for a competitive schedule on Thursday will have been rather disappointed, with all three favourites rather easing to straight-set victories to make the semi-finals.
These results see Carlos Alcaraz trading around even money in the outright market for the title, with Daniil Medvedev closely following at 3.185/40.
Jannik Sinner 6.86/1 and Karen Khachanov 20.019/1 are the long-shots in the market, because they are underdogs for their respective semi-finals.
Repeat of Adelaide result expected for Medvedev
Action gets underway at 18:00 UK time and it's Medvedev facing Khachanov first up.
Medvedev got the better of his countryman in Adelaide in the first week of this season, with a routine 6-3 6-3 victory and priced around 1.330/100 that day. He's marginally shorter-priced than this today, around five ticks shorter at the time of writing, at 1.251/4.
In that match, Khachanov had no answer for Medvedev's first serve, winning a mere 12% when Medvedev landed his first serve, and this had sizeable implications on the points won percentages between the duo - Medvedev dominating, winning 59% of points competed.
Khachanov will need to put much more pressure on Medvedev if he is to cause a major upset.
Medvedev has a big edge on hard court data, holding around 4% more and breaking 8% more on the surface in the last 12 months. All-surface data this year is pretty much in line with those differentials too. Considering this, it's very difficult to argue with the market pricing here.
Alcaraz shorter-priced than recent hard court meetings with Sinner
The second semi-final is going to be one for the night owls, which is a shame as it looks a little more competitive on paper. Carlos Alcaraz faces Jannik Sinner, and the world number one is 1.434/9 to progress to the final.
The duo have met four times since the summer of 2022, with Sinner winning the first two but Alcaraz taking both hard court clashes subsequently - including a five-set triumph at the US Open and a straight-sets win several weeks ago at Indian Wells.
The Spaniard was priced around the 1.68/13 mark for both of those hard court matches, a reasonable difference to tonight's price.
Both players are yet to drop a set in this tournament, and in fact Alcaraz has won his last 10 matches in straight sets (20-0 in sets), which is a quite incredible achievement considering it's not too long ago that he had a fairly long-term injury.
Market pricing understandable
There's less of a difference in hard court numbers between Alcaraz and Sinner, compared to Medvedev versus Khachanov, so you can understand why Alcaraz is a bigger price to win here, compared to Medvedev in the other match.
Alcaraz's main edge comes on serve, holding around 5% more than his opponent on hard court in the last year. Both players have superb, similar, return data.
While it's again difficult to dispute the market line for this match, there is a glimmer of hope for Sinner's supporters. In that Indian Wells meeting, Sinner won just four points fewer in the match (49% of points won), which is basically unheard of in a straight-sets loss.
If Sinner can land his first serve more efficiently tonight (he struggled with that in this previous match) then we should see a pretty competitive clash between two extremely talented young players.