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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">Miami Masters Day Seven Tips: Sinner's return too good for Rublev</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan-weston/">Dan Weston</a></li> <li><time datetime="2023-03-28">28 March 2023</time></li> <li>3:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Miami Masters Day Seven Tips: Sinner's return too good for Rublev", "name": "Miami Masters Day Seven Tips: Sinner's return too good for Rublev", "description": "The ATP Miami Masters continues on Tuesday with eight fourth round matches so read Dan Weston's preview for the betting insight...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/miami-masters-day-seven-tips-sinners-return-too-good-for-rublev-280323-778.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/miami-masters-day-seven-tips-sinners-return-too-good-for-rublev-280323-778.html", "datePublished": "2023-03-28T10:09:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2023-03-29T09:27:00+01:00", "articleBody": "The ATP Miami Masters continues on Tuesday with eight fourth round matches so read Dan Weston's preview for the betting insight... Dan's Tuesday tips after favourites beaten on Monday Sinner justified favourite over Rublev Khachanov aims for first win in seven against Tsitsipas Alcaraz and Medvedev way out front in outrights Monday was the day of the underdog in Florida with solid pre-match favourites Mackenzie McDonald, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz and Frances Tiafoe all getting beaten. While none of these were particularly near the top of the chasing pack behind Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev in the outright market, there has been a slight shortening of the duo's tournament winner prices. Alcaraz is trading at [2.28] with Medvedev [3.2]. Both Alcaraz and Medvedev are huge favourites to continue their tournaments with wins tonight, both priced at around [1.20] or below for their matches against Tommy Paul and Quentin Halys, respectively. However, the two players are the only strong favourites tonight, on what looks to be a pretty competitive day ahead. Fritz and Rune will create superb spectacle Taylor Fritz has had an excellent start to 2023 and this has contributed to his status as favourite over Holger Rune. Across all surfaces this year, the American has won around 3% more points on serve, making him a justified favourite at market lines. I'm eagerly anticipating this match given that the duo are both really on an upward ability curve and capable of some high level tennis. Sinner justifying cut in market price If Fritz versus Rune isn't the match of the day, then Jannik Sinner against Andrey Rublev surely must be. The Italian Sinner is [1.59] to get the win which is interesting considering their previous three meetings have seen both players priced around the even money mark for each. Sinner's better return game - he's won 4% more return points on the surface than Rublev in the last year - should hold the key to this meeting and Rublev may have to put up with a fair amount of pressure on his serve. With Sinner's serve numbers also rapidly improving this year (68% of service points won across surfaces) he looks well-placed to take the win here. Khachanov will struggle to avoid another loss The markets seem fairly defensive on the chances of Stefanos Tsitsipas against Karen Khachanov. I've made the point many times on this column that I think that the Greek is over-rated, and will struggle to regularly make the latter stages of big tournaments unless he can consistently put more pressure on opposition serves. Tsitsipas has beaten Khachanov on all six of their previous meetings, including at the Australian Open this year when he was priced around the [1.35] mark, rather different to today's line at [1.95 ]. When I first saw the market lines I thought they looked generous on Tsitsipas, but the stats suggest actually he should only be a slight favourite here. In their previous meetings, Khachanov has had real issues on serve, winning just 60.5% of service points, and his 30% return points won figure won't create an impact either. He will have to improve much more if he is to stop the run extending to seven losses in a row.", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Andrey Rublev.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Andrey Rublev.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Andrey Rublev.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dan Weston", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan_weston" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Andrey Rublev.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Andrey Rublev.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Andrey Rublev.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Andrey Rublev.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Tennis player Andrey Rublev"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Rublev plays Sinner in the standout match on Tuesday</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-miami-2023/sinner-v-rublev-betting-32219898" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-miami-2023/sinner-v-rublev-betting-32219898">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Miami%20Masters%20Day%20Seven%20Tips%3A%20Sinner%27s%20return%20too%20good%20for%20Rublev&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmiami-masters-day-seven-tips-sinners-return-too-good-for-rublev-280323-778.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon 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betting insight...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <ul> <li> <h3><strong>Dan's Tuesday tips after favourites beaten on Monday</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.211951613"><strong>Sinner justified favourite over Rublev</strong></a></h3> </li> <li> <h3><a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.211987729"><strong>Khachanov aims for first win in seven against Tsitsipas</strong></a></h3> </li> <hr><h2>Alcaraz and Medvedev way out front in outrights</h2><p></p><p>Monday was the <strong>day of the underdog in Florida</strong> with solid pre-match favourites Mackenzie McDonald, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz and Frances Tiafoe all getting beaten.</p><p>While none of these were particularly near the top of the chasing pack behind Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev in the outright market, there has been a slight shortening of the duo's tournament winner prices.</p><blockquote> <p><a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.211669635"><strong>Alcaraz is trading at <b class="inline_odds" title="5/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.28</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">5/4</span></b> with Medvedev <b class="inline_odds" title="11/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.2</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">11/5</span></b></strong></a>.</p> </blockquote><p>Both <strong>Alcaraz and Medvedev are huge favourites to continue their tournaments with wins tonight</strong>, both priced at around <b class="inline_odds" title="1/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.20</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/5</span></b> or below for their matches against Tommy Paul and Quentin Halys, respectively.</p><p>However, the two players are the only strong favourites tonight, on what looks to be a pretty competitive day ahead.</p><h2>Fritz and Rune will create superb spectacle</h2><p></p><p>Taylor Fritz has had an excellent start to 2023 and this has contributed to his status as <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-miami-2023/fritz-v-hol-rune-betting-32219241">favourite over Holger Rune</a>. Across all surfaces this year, <strong>the American has won around 3% more points on serve</strong>, making him a justified favourite at market lines.</p><p><img alt="Taylor Fritz.jpg" src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Taylor%20Fritz.600x338.jpg" width="956" height="538" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;" loading="lazy"></p><p>I'm eagerly anticipating this match given that the duo are both really on an upward ability curve and capable of some high level tennis.</p><h2>Sinner justifying cut in market price</h2><p></p><p>If Fritz versus Rune isn't the match of the day, then <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.211951613"><strong>Jannik Sinner against Andrey Rublev</strong></a> surely must be. The Italian <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.211951613">Sinner is <b class="inline_odds" title="4/7"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.59</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/7</span></b> to get the win</a> which is interesting considering their previous three meetings have seen both players priced around the even money mark for each.</p><p><strong>Sinner's better return game</strong> - he's won 4% more return points on the surface than Rublev in the last year - s<strong>hould hold the key to this meeting</strong> and Rublev may have to put up with a fair amount of pressure on his serve.</p><p>With Sinner's serve numbers also rapidly improving this year (68% of service points won across surfaces) he looks well-placed to take the win here.</p><h2>Khachanov will struggle to avoid another loss</h2><p></p><p>The markets seem fairly defensive on the chances of <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.211987729">Stefanos Tsitsipas against Karen Khachanov</a>.</p><p>I've made the point many times on this column that I think that <strong>the Greek is over-rated</strong>, and will struggle to regularly make the latter stages of big tournaments unless he can consistently put more pressure on opposition serves.</p><p>Tsitsipas has beaten Khachanov on all six of their previous meetings, including at the Australian Open this year when he was priced around the <b class="inline_odds" title="1/3"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.35</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/3</span></b> mark, rather different to <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.211987729">today's line at [1.95 ]</a>.</p><p>When I first saw the market lines <strong>I thought they looked generous on Tsitsipas</strong>, but the stats suggest actually he should only be a slight favourite here.</p><p>In their previous meetings, <strong>Khachanov has had real issues on serve</strong>, winning just 60.5% of service points, and his 30% return points won figure won't create an impact either.</p><p>He will have to improve much more if he is to stop the run extending to seven losses in a row.</p></ul> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New customers can get £20 in free bets!</h2> <p>New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBHC01B5G20">T&Cs apply.</a></p> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description "> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description"></div> </section> </div> </section> </div> </section> <div id="betslip" class="entry_body__extras"> <script id="bet_row_tmpl" type="text/x-custom-template"> <tr class="${idx} bet-row"> <td><span class="betting__remove" data-idx="${idx}">Remove</span></td> <td> ${label} <input type="hidden" name="instructions[${idx}][selection_id]" 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