Miami Masters Day Seven Tips: Sinner's return too good for Rublev

Dan Weston
28 March 2023
3:00 min read

Rublev plays Sinner in the standout match on Tuesday

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The ATP Miami Masters continues on Tuesday with eight fourth round matches so read Dan Weston's preview for the betting insight...

Dan's Tuesday tips after favourites beaten on Monday
Sinner justified favourite over Rublev
Khachanov aims for first win in seven against Tsitsipas

Alcaraz and Medvedev way out front in outrights

Monday was the day of the underdog in Florida with solid pre-match favourites Mackenzie McDonald, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz and Frances Tiafoe all getting beaten.

While none of these were particularly near the top of the chasing pack behind Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev in the outright market, there has been a slight shortening of the duo's tournament winner prices.

Alcaraz is trading at 2.285/4 with Medvedev 3.211/5.

Both Alcaraz and Medvedev are huge favourites to continue their tournaments with wins tonight, both priced at around 1.201/5 or below for their matches against Tommy Paul and Quentin Halys, respectively.

However, the two players are the only strong favourites tonight, on what looks to be a pretty competitive day ahead.

Fritz and Rune will create superb spectacle

Taylor Fritz has had an excellent start to 2023 and this has contributed to his status as favourite over Holger Rune. Across all surfaces this year, the American has won around 3% more points on serve, making him a justified favourite at market lines.

Taylor Fritz.jpg

I'm eagerly anticipating this match given that the duo are both really on an upward ability curve and capable of some high level tennis.

Sinner justifying cut in market price

If Fritz versus Rune isn't the match of the day, then Jannik Sinner against Andrey Rublev surely must be. The Italian Sinner is 1.594/7 to get the win which is interesting considering their previous three meetings have seen both players priced around the even money mark for each.

Sinner's better return game - he's won 4% more return points on the surface than Rublev in the last year - should hold the key to this meeting and Rublev may have to put up with a fair amount of pressure on his serve.

With Sinner's serve numbers also rapidly improving this year (68% of service points won across surfaces) he looks well-placed to take the win here.

Khachanov will struggle to avoid another loss

The markets seem fairly defensive on the chances of Stefanos Tsitsipas against Karen Khachanov.

I've made the point many times on this column that I think that the Greek is over-rated, and will struggle to regularly make the latter stages of big tournaments unless he can consistently put more pressure on opposition serves.

Tsitsipas has beaten Khachanov on all six of their previous meetings, including at the Australian Open this year when he was priced around the 1.351/3 mark, rather different to today's line at [1.95 ].

When I first saw the market lines I thought they looked generous on Tsitsipas, but the stats suggest actually he should only be a slight favourite here.

In their previous meetings, Khachanov has had real issues on serve, winning just 60.5% of service points, and his 30% return points won figure won't create an impact either.

He will have to improve much more if he is to stop the run extending to seven losses in a row.

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