The second round of the ATP Miami Masters continues on Saturday, with 16 further matches on tonight's schedule. Returning to preview the day ahead is Dan Weston...
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Zverev out as other big names progress
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McDonald looking generously-priced
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Evans underdog to turn around run of losses
Big names again strong favourites
Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud and Holger Rune progressed in straight sets last night to ease into round three, but Alexander Zverev was dumped out as Taro Daniel demolished him for the loss of just four games in a match where the German committed 32 unforced errors in 16 games.
Looking to join them in round three are some other big names who start their tournament today, including Stefanos Tsitsipas, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz, and all are strong favourites to progress past pretty low-ranked opposition. Of the quartet, Tsitsipas could well be the most vulnerable against the veteran Frenchman, Richard Gasquet.
Berrettini vulnerable against in-form McDonald
Former top 10 man Matteo Berrettini has been struggling of late, with injury and a really bad run of defeats as favourite - three as 1.402/5 or below this season already - and faces a tricky-looking match against home player Mackenzie McDonald tonight.
McDonald has impressed so far this year, winning in excess of 60% of his main tour matches, and beating Rafa Nadal at the Australian Open in straight sets. Berrettini is going to have to play pretty well in order to win tonight, and McDonald is 2.588/5 to take another big-name scalp, which looks to be a pretty tempting underdog price.
Another player who has been struggling of late is the Brit, Dan Evans, who is now winless in five matches, including retiring in Dubai recently as well. He's won just one set in those matches, against opposition ranked outside the top 250 in a 2-1 loss in the Davis Cup, so has something to prove on current form.
Opponent Lorenzo Sonego has had a mixed bag of a year so far, but has much better serve data this season than Evans, and the market line of 1.645/8 on the Italian looks about right to me.
Shelton's serve makes him favourite against Mannarino
Finally, Adrian Mannarino fought back from a 1-6 first set loss to beat Juncheng Shang in round one, and did reasonably well at Indian Wells last event as well. He's 2.568/5 to get past the big-serving American, Ben Shelton, who rocketed up the rankings with a run to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in January.
High level performances haven't been so easy for Shelton to find since, going 1-3 subsequently, although two of those losses were deciding set defeats against top 10 opposition. It's difficult to be too negative on Shelton considering the calibre of those opponents.
Essentially, the battle will be between the serve of Shelton, which has held almost 90% in the last six months on hard court, and the better return game of Mannarino - Shelton has only broken 13% of opposition's service games. It could be a really fascinating clash of different dynamics.