Miami Masters Day Eight Tips: Underdog Fritz must fire against Alcaraz

Dan Weston
29 March 2023
3:00 min read

Can Taylor Fritz test generational talent Carlos Alcaraz?

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Dan Weston previews the ATP Miami Masters quarter-finals action and discusses the betting for Francisco Cerundolo v Karen Khachanov and tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz v Taylor Fritz...

Alcaraz and Medvedev shorten after several exits

Sinner's improved serve making the difference

Alcaraz justified heavy favourite over Fritz

Both Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev continue to set the pace at the top of the outright market.

The Russian eased past one of the surprise packages of the tournament, Quentin Halys, in straight sets, while Alcaraz had the same outcome against Tommy Paul.

With the likes of Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas slipping to straight-set defeats last night, Alcaraz is 2.245/4 and Medvedev 3.259/4.

Following his win over Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner has received support and is now trading as the clear 5.85/1 third favourite for the title.

Ruusuvuori big underdog against in-form Sinner

Tonight sees a later start with only two matches on the schedule, with the first being Emil Ruusuvuori versus Jannik Sinner not before 20:00 UK time.

In my Indian Wells columns I discussed Ruusuvuori as a player who had underwhelmed me since he broke through on the main tour, but a Masters quarter-final could be the turning point in his career.

However, the Finn is a 6.611/2 underdog to make the semi-finals, with Sinner playing some excellent tennis of late.

In Sinner's last three completed tournaments, his results have been winner/runner-up/semi-finalist with the two defeats coming against two of the three best players in the world - Medvedev and Alcaraz.

Sinner shows rapid improvement

Recent history is also on Sinner's side - he's won their last four match-ups - and his level this year has been superb, with a combined service/return points won percentage of almost 11 across all surfaces in 2023.

It looks like he's added an extra dimension to his serve, picking up around 3-4% more service points won than across 2021 and 2022, in addition to continued improvement on return as well.

He's becoming a player I can see challenging for major tournaments in the not too distant future.

Given the large statistical discrepancy between the duo, it's pretty difficult to consider that the market has made any sort of mistake in the current pricing - I agree that Sinner should be a very strong favourite to make the semi-finals.

Stratospheric Alcaraz is strong favourite

Should Sinner win today it is highly likely that he will face a repeat of his Indian Wells semi-final against Alcaraz. The top seed faces Taylor Fritz in the night match, and again, is a strong favourite to prevail at 1.3130/100.

The duo have never met in professional tennis, and both are playing at a very high level this season.

Alcaraz is in the stratosphere, running at around 112% combined service/return points won, while Fritz's numbers are lower (around 107%), but still meriting contention as a top five player.

Fritz actually has better serve numbers than the Spaniard, but Alcaraz's return game is phenomenal. He's won an incredible 45% of return points in 2023, breaking opponents 38% of the time.

These are numbers you don't see often on the ATP Tour and show that he is a generational talent already at 19.

It's clear from these numbers that Fritz is going to have to serve incredibly well and even then it's likely he will need to have a few key points go his way. That to me seems his likely route to victory, and it's going to be very tough for the American.

The market agrees with me, and there's no underdog value here. It looks well-set for an Alcaraz versus Sinner repeat semi-final from two weeks ago at Indian Wells.

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